Declining Fertility, Rising Child Mortality, Surge in International Migration, Urbanization Significantly Shaping Global Population Trends, Commission Hears
Declining fertility rates, persistently high child mortality rates, international migration, and a surge in urbanization over the past several decades have significantly shaped global population trends — and will continue to do so, the Commission on Population and Development heard today.
The Commission, currently holding its week-long session at UN Headquarters in New York through 11 April under the theme “Ensuring healthy lives and promoting the well-being for all at all ages”, convened a panel of national experts this morning to discuss the “Programme implementation and future programme of work of the Secretariat in the field of population”.
Some speakers voiced concerns about the growing ageing population in their region, driven by below-replacement fertility rates and the outmigration of young people. In contrast, the speaker from Kenya noted the continent’s rapidly expanding youth population. Panellists noted that both demographic trends pose significant challenges — and opportunities — for labour markets, education systems, caregiving and healthcare sectors. The speaker from Albania highlighted her Government’s policy dubbed as a “baby bonus” aimed at boosting fertility rates.
John Wilmoth, Director of the Population Division at the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, moderated the panel discussion and highlighted findings from a recent Division report. According to the report, the global fertility rate in 2024 stands at 2.1 births per woman over a lifetime — a significant decline from approximately 5 in the 1960s and 3.3 in 1990.
“Although the historic reduction in fertility is being experienced worldwide, its timing differs substantially across countries and regions,” he noted. Wilmoth also referenced another report produced by the Division on international migration and sustainable development, which explores the linkages between migration and the social, economic and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. Among other key initiatives, he highlighted the Division’s work developing a set of indicators to monitor progress on implementing the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration.
Africa’s Mainly Young Population ‘Eager for Change and Prosperity’
Mohamed Abdikadir Sheikh, Director General of the National Council for Population and Development of Kenya, shared his national perspective, emphasizing Africa’s predominantly youthful population, which he described as “eager for change and prosperity”. While life expectancy has increased somewhat, it still lags behind the global average of 73 years — “in Africa it is around 64 years,” he noted.
He highlighted the continent’s rapid urbanization with significant migration from rural to urban communities. Africa’s population currently stands at an estimated 1.4 billion — about 18.8 per cent of the global total — and is growing rapidly. Projections suggest it could reach 2.4 billion by 2050 and as many as 4.2 billion within the next century.
Focusing on Kenya, Mr. Sheikh reported that the country’s population has risen from 47.6 million in 2019 to an estimated 53 million today and is expected to reach 70 million by 2045. Kenya, like many other African countries, has seen a significant decline in fertility rates — from a high of 5.4 in 1993 to 3.4 in 2022. However, major regional disparities remain, with some counties reporting fertility rates as high as 8.3, he noted.
Young people under the age of 35 make up more than 75 per cent of Kenya’s population, a demographic trend that presents both opportunities and challenges, particularly in the areas of employment, education and healthcare. While average life expectancy across Africa is around 64.4 years, he emphasized that “the quality of life is really not that excellent”. “You may live up to 70 or 80 years, but you [will] have communicable disease like hypertension and diabetes,” he added.
He also pointed to persistent issues of high maternal and child mortality across Kenya and the broader continent, as Governments work to meet the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals. Rapid urbanization remains a pressing challenge, he said, noting that Kenya’s urban population grew from 3.9 million in 1989 to 14.8 million in 2019.
Caribbean Region Undergoing Demographic Slowdown as Fertility Rates Drop
Mareeca Brown Bailey, Director of the Population and Health, Social Policy, Planning and Research Division, Planning Institute of Jamaica, reported that the Caribbean region is undergoing a demographic slowdown. While Africa is witnessing growth in its child and youth population, “our child population is declining” and the dependent elderly group is increasing, she said. This demographic shift — seen in Jamaica and across the wider Caribbean — is influenced by net migration loss, an ageing population and persistently low fertility rates.
Fertility rates are lowest in the English-speaking Caribbean, and in Jamaica they have fallen below replacement level. By 2050, the elderly population is expected to surpass the child population — this means there will be a demand for elderly healthcare services, but “we cannot leave our younger persons without the… requisite services they need,” she said.
This is why “a life-cycle approach” is needed, she said. Jamaica has also seen high rates of migration, particularly among younger women and productive persons, to countries such as the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom, as well as within the region. “The immigration of a significant percentage of highly trained and skilled professionals can lead to brain drain,” she added, noting that the migration of trained nurses particularly impacts healthcare.
The Caribbean in general, and Jamaica in particular, rely on data from the United Nations’ Population Division to create projections and policies. It is useful to check Jamaica’s internal data against the UN’s interactive, holistic and comprehensive data, she said, adding: “It helps us to make comparisons to understand where we would have gone wrong.” In particular, the UN data on migration has helped her country to create a comprehensive migration policy, she said, adding that it is crucial for Jamaica to understand “how to maximize the skills that our diaspora has”.
‘Baby Bonus’ to Encourage More Births
Anisa Omuri Muça, Director of the Social Statistics Directorate, National Institute of Statistics of Albania, said her country, like many Eastern European countries, is experiencing a sharp decline in birth rates. This has long-term implications for population ageing and workforce sustainability. The number of births per year decreased significantly from about 53,000 in 2001 to 34,000 in 2011 to about 24,000 births currently, while the number of deaths remains stable. This prompted Albania’s policymakers to launch a 2020 measure to provide a “baby bonus” which gives immediate financial assistance to parents of newborns.
Noting also that the proportion of elderly people is increasing, she said this is placing pressure on Albania’s social security, healthcare systems, and pension funds. The shrinking working-age population may also impact economic growth, she said, highlighting another set of policies her Government established to ensure social protection, inclusion and skills development for ageing adults.
Further, young and skilled Albanians continue to leave the country in search of better economic and education opportunities, primarily in Western Europe and North America. This also exacerbates labour shortages and slows development, she said. Urbanization is another demographic phenomenon in her country — this is resulting in “depopulation in remote areas” while straining infrastructure and services in major cities like Tirana.
The Population Division’s data, reports, and analytical tools have enhanced Albania’s demographic research, policy planning, and decision-making. Notably, the country has leveraged the UN’s migration datasets, which provide crucial benchmarks for analysing emigration patterns and their socioeconomic effects, particularly regarding the loss of youth and skilled labour. Additionally, by utilizing UN data, Albania can compare its demographic trends with those of other Eastern European countries, identifying best practices and policy interventions to tackle shared challenges, such as low fertility and ageing.
Video on World Population Trends
Prior to the panel, participants watched a short video on world population trends, produced by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs’ Population Division, showcasing the results of the 2024 edition of World Population Prospects. It examined how the wide variety of national patterns of fertility, mortality and international migration shape and impact global population trends.
During the ensuing dialogue with Member States, panellists addressed questions related to the morning’s discussions. Asked about incentives Albania is offering citizens in light of a declining fertility rate, Ms. Omuri pointed to the “baby bonus” to encourage new couples, but added that the country is grappling with a “brain drain”, as many young people seek better opportunities in Western Europe and North America. Additionally, an ageing population is creating increased demands on social protections, healthcare and other services.
Mr. Sheikh, asked about maternal mortality, acknowledged progress but said much more work is needed. He noted that Kenya is focused on enhancing quality of care and expanding universal healthcare coverage. “A concern at the moment is quality of care because women come into facilities and are still dying in the hands of the most qualified personnel, and that is doctors and nurses,” he said.
On the topic of maximizing the demographic dividend, Ms. Bailey stressed the importance of political will in creating opportunities for the working-age population, and the need to establish a work-life balance, enabling young people to pursue education while supporting their families. Broadening the conversation, Mr. Sheikh emphasized the importance of integrating population planning and educating both politicians and citizens on the significance of population issues. Africa faces unique challenges, with a growing youth population, contrasting with other regions experiencing population decline. “We don’t want to be in a position where other countries are trying to boost their population,” he said, stressing the value of learning from others and exchanging ideas.
In response to a recommendation on integrating population development into national planning, Ms. Bailey agreed, noting that this approach has allowed Jamaica to develop a long-term vision. “Population and development are fundamental to our national development agenda. It would be remiss of any country not to incorporate them into every aspect of their planning,” she emphasized.
On the issue of coordination across the UN system to avoid duplication, Mr. Wilmoth acknowledged the Division’s efforts but called for greater specificity when identifying gaps in coordination. “It’s certainly an aspiration and a goal but when we don’t achieve that… I think it may be necessary to be a little more specific about exactly what you’re seeing and where you’re seeing a lack of coordination,” he added. It is always important to encourage agencies to speak to each other and avoid duplication.