PRESS BRIEFING ON POPULATION

Press Briefing

PRESS BRIEFING ON POPULATION

The Director of the Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Joseph Chamie, told a Headquarters press briefing this morning that the decrease in mortality was probably humanity's greatest achievement.

The goal for development had been to reduce mortality, reduce the death of children and to allow people to live long, healthy lives, he continued. That had been a goal since Biblical times and was now being achieved. Still, more needed to be done.

Mr. Chamie, introducing the 1998 Revision of the official United Nations world population estimates and projections, said that the report was based on population statistics covering more than 200 countries, areas and regions of the world in the period from 1950 to 2050. Outlining the conclusions of the report, he said population growth rates were declining, but the world's population continued to grow. Thirty years ago the growth rate for the world was at its historic peak of about 2 per cent; now it was at 1.3 per cent. Ten years ago the global population was growing at approximately 86 million per year; now it was down to 78 million per year. Today's population was 5.9 billion. It would reach 6 billion next year and by 2050 it would be close to 9 billion.

Fertility rates continued to decline, he said. The world average was approximately 2.7, half the level of some years ago. Twenty-five years ago in Brazil, couples were having on the average six children, but now the average was 2.5. In Kenya the average had been 8 children per couple, and now the average was 4.5.

He explained further that, while there were notable exceptions in regions such as Africa and eastern Europe, mortality rates were declining globally, with lower death rates and longer life spans in most countries. Infant and adult mortality had declined. In the 1950s, life expectancy was approximately 45 years, while today it was close to 63 years. Infant mortality, which used to be 155 deaths per 1,000 births, was today around 57 deaths per 1,000.

People were reaching advanced ages of eighty, ninety and one hundred years, he added. The group of the very old would continue to increase dramatically, both in number and proportionally. To illustrate, the number of centenarians would increase 16 times in the next 50 years, growing from 135,000 people to 2.2 million by 2050. In addition, women made up a larger proportion of the very old. There were nearly two women to every man above the age of eighty. Of those one hundred years and older, there were four women for every man.

He said that the understanding of the levels and patterns of migration had improved and were being more directly addressed by governments and the

international community. There were bilateral agreements, changes of policy and, increasingly, recognition of the important contribution of migrants to socio-economic development.

Some countries in eastern Europe were among the exceptions to the general improvement in mortality, he said. Declining conditions after the breakup of the Soviet Union had resulted in no improvement in life expectancy and death rates that had not declined. In sub-Saharan Africa, the impact of HIV/AIDS epidemic had taken a devastating toll, with more deaths expected and life expectancy and growth rates in substantial decline. The population of those countries, however, would continue to grow. It was clear that without HIV/AIDS life expectancy would be higher.

In response to a question, he said there would be many more deaths from AIDS in Africa than had been anticipated, and life expectancy would drop substantially. In Botswana, for example, life expectancy had dropped by 20 years and there had been a dramatic drop in the growth rate. It was estimated that one out of four people had HIV/AIDS. Despite those figures, however, its growth rate would continue to increase and still double in size by 2050.

In South Africa, he continued, where the HIV/AIDS epidemic had started later, the growth rate would drop from 1.6 per cent to 0.3 per cent. In 2015, without the impact of AIDS, the population in South Africa would have been approximately 52 million. With AIDS, it would be 43 million. In Zimbabwe in 2015, the population would have been 16.8 million, but with AIDS it would be 13.6 million -- a loss of about 3.2 million. That also reflected low fertility, due to the deaths of people of childbearing age.

A correspondent asked if the information provided was "new". Mr. Chamie said the Division had revised the projected AIDS impact in 1996. The new numbers on the prevalence of the disease had come out in the summer of 1998. The most recent information concerned the demographic impact of AIDS in the future. On 10 November, a technical meeting would be held to discuss whether the prevalence rates and the projections made on the basis of those rates were reliable and accurate. The meeting would be attended by representatives from the Division, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF).

Asked why AIDS continued to devastate populations in sub-Saharan Africa, Mr. Chamie said one reason was lack of prevention. The disease was preventable, although drugs available in the West were not affordable in developing countries. Education and other methods of reducing transmission of the disease were being advocated.

What were the implications of slower population growth, increasing population, the AIDS epidemic and the decrease in mortality? a correspondent asked. Mr. Chamie responded that all demographics had an enormous impact on

Population Briefing - 3 - 28 October 1998

the economic, social and political aspects of government. They affected fertility, mortality, age structure, migration -- every aspect of society. The stock market was affected, because people in their fifties invested more than those in their twenties and people in their sixties and seventies withdrew more than they invested. On the political side, those over age sixty had different voting patterns than twenty-year-olds, thus affecting the voting patterns in many countries.

Every government and increasingly the business community took demographics into account, he said. The change in the age structure meant there were fewer people in the potential work force per retired person. There was a "global graying". Pension systems would have to be examined. There would be more and more people above the retirement age and fewer below it.

Some of the most rapidly aging countries were in southern Europe, he added. In Italy and Spain the average age was going up. Although at one time there might have been 10 workers for one retired person, that figure might eventually change to two workers per retiree. Also, the implications for family size were enormous.

Asked about the disparity between ageing in the developed and the developing world, he said that while the gap between lifespans in the wealthy and the less wealthy countries was shrinking, there were countries where the gap had increased. With regard to the disparity in life expectancy between genders, he said that women lived longer than men. The disparity even existed in the less developed countries, where the rate of women dying in childbirth was higher.

Asked how the terms "more developed countries" and "less or poorly developed countries" were arrived at, he said the designation "developed" included the regions that had been historically referred to as developed: Europe, including Russia; North America; Japan; and Australia and New Zealand. Those designations were used for statistical purposes and were not necessarily an indicator of economic development.

In response to another question, he said the United Nations had been doing estimates since it was founded. The Population Division was established in 1946. One could not do work in the area of economic and social development without demographics -- population numbers. The numbers were revised every two years and a new set of projections produced.

Had the effects of Viagra been factored into the revised projections? a correspondent asked. Mr. Chamie replied that Viagra had not been taken into account in the statistics. They might have some information by the year 2000, but the effects would be relatively minor.

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