NEED FOR STRONG POPULATION DIVISION EMPHASIZED IN COMMISSION ON POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Press Release
POP/640
NEED FOR STRONG POPULATION DIVISION EMPHASIZED IN COMMISSION ON POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT
19970226 Division's Research Relied upon by Many Organizations, Says Director;Often Foundation for Reports, Databases, Conferences of Other UN Bodies
A strong Population Division was essential to meet the current and future needs of the United Nations, while a weak division would have serious negative consequences on the work of the numerous organizations that relied upon it, the Commission on Population and Development was told this morning.
The Director of the Population Division of the Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, Joseph Chamie, introducing reports on programme questions, said the research and publications of the Division often served as the foundation for reports, statements, meetings, conferences and databases prepared by other United Nations bodies, the private sector and non-governmental organizations.
The economic and social sectors of the United Nations were in the process of undergoing the restructuring requested by Secretary-General Kofi Annan, Mr. Chamie continued. While he was unable to offer any concrete suggestions on future developments, he told Commission members that the restructuring was not considered an event, but a process involving streamlining and increased efficiency.
Introducing world populations projections, Nancy Yu-Ping Chen, of the Population Estimates and Projections Section, Population Division, stressed that the Division had continued to improve its technology to produce databases and had answered an increased number of requests to provide data. However, in order to improve, respond to new circumstances and meet increasing demands, it would require resources.
The representative of India suggested that if there was a resource crunch and a need for the reallocation of resources, then perhaps population projections could be revised every four years, instead of two. Several speakers stressed, however, that the 1998 revision should be kept on schedule, because the review of the Programme of Action of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development was due in 1999.
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Also this morning, the Commission heard progress reports from: the Chief of the Fertility and Family Planning Section, Aminur Rohman Khan; the Chief of the Mortality and Migration Section, Hania Zlotnik; and the Chief of the Population Policy Section, Ellen Brennan.
Statements were also made by the representatives of Iran, Lesotho, Hungary, Germany, Malaysia, Italy, Jamaica, United States, Nigeria, France, Netherlands, Philippines and Syria. Representatives of the Economic Commission of Europe and the International Union for the Scientific Study of Populations also made statements.
The Commission will meet again at 3 p.m. today to continue its consideration of programme questions.
Commission Work Programme
The Commission on Population and Development met this morning to begin its discussion of programme questions, in particular programme performance and implementation in 1996.
The Commission has before it a report on the progress of work in the field of population in 1996: Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis of the United Nations Secretariat (document E/CN.9/1997/7). The report covers the activities of the Department in sub- programmes dealing with the analysis of: demographic variables at the world level; world population projection; population policy and socio-economic development; monitoring, review and appraisal, coordination and dissemination of population information; and technical cooperation in population.
According to the report, there were some delays in programme implementation as a consequence of the financial situation of the Organization. Some activities were canceled or had to be carried over to this year.
In the area of analysis of demographic variables at the world level, the report states that a study on the status of women and child survival had been completed and would be published shortly under the title Too Young to Die: Genes or Gender?. The study, which provides a comprehensive view of the extent and causes of female disadvantage in mortality during childhood, contains a comprehensive set of estimates of infant and child mortality by sex for 82 of the 108 developing countries that had a population exceeding 1 million in 1990. Those countries account for 92 per cent of the population of the developing world.
The study finds that differential treatment of boys and girls with regard to health care use provided the strongest explanation of the mortality differentials observed. Sex differences in immunization coverage were also likely causes of the differences in survival recorded in certain countries. In societies where female disadvantage was marked, parents preferred boys over girls because the former were more likely to be the source of long-term economic benefit. Consequently, parents tended to allocate resources in a way that favoured boys.
Regarding international migration, the report states that the Statistical Commission was to consider, at its twenty-ninth session, in 1997, a set of recommendations on statistics of international migration, in draft form. The draft report, which was prepared with the support of the Population Division, presents a framework for the compilation of statistics on the flows of international migrants. Such a framework permits a better understanding of the meaning and scope of the different sources of data available in a country.
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If approved, the framework will permit the collection and dissemination of a more comprehensive set of statistics than those gathered in the past by the Statistical Division of the United Nations.
Concerning world population projects, the results of the 1996 Revision of the world population estimates and projections, prepared by the Population Division of the Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, were officially announced in November 1996.
The report indicates that currently 4.59 billion persons -- 80 per cent of the world's population -- live in the less developed regions, and 1.18 billion persons live in the more developed regions. The world population in 1995 is 29 million (0.5 per cent) fewer than expected in the 1994 Revision. The population of the less developed regions is 34 million below forecasts in the previous Revision, while the population of the more developed regions is slightly higher -- by 5 million -- than previously expected. Officials say the reduction in the expected growth rate results from a faster fertility decline than previously anticipated (a world average of 2.96 children per woman in 1990 to 1995, instead of 3.10).
The population of the more developed regions increased at an average of 0.4 per cent per annum between 1990 and 1995, according to the report. The major changes occurred in eastern Europe, where life expectancy declined from 70 years in 1985 to 1990 to 68 years in 1990 to 1995. Net international migration in 1990 to 1995 was estimated to be plus 1.4 million, instead of minus 0.5 million as projected in the last Revision. Overall, fertility in the more developed regions declined only marginally faster than expected two years ago, to 1.68 children per woman in 1990 to 1995, instead of 1.7. In Europe, except for eastern Europe, life expectancy increased slightly faster than previously expected, reaching 76.7 years in western Europe for 1990 to 1995.
Regarding population policy and socio-economic development, the study entitled International Migration Policies and Programmes: A World Survey was completed and submitted for publication in 1996. The study emphasizes the fact that regulatory restrictions and a State's view of migration were important conditioning factors in shaping migration dynamics. The findings of the project suggest that, in a context of regional integration and globalization, the movement of people was still constrained by national policy interests.
In terms of monitoring, review and appraisal, coordination and dissemination of population information, during 1996, the global Population Information Network, with funding from the United Nations Population Fund, made progress towards increasing the availability and accessibility of population information. During 1996, the Population Division continued to
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provide technical assistance services to more than 30 projects in 20 developing countries in Africa, Asia, western Asia, Latin America and countries with economies in transition in the areas of: population and development training; institutionalizing analysis and research on socio-economic and demographic data obtained from population censuses, surveys and vital registration systems; population policy; and population and development.
Also before the Commission is the Secretary-General's note on the proposed programme of work in population for the biennium 1998-1999 (document E/CN.9/1997/8).
It was prepared under the medium-term plan for the period 1998-2001, adopted by the General Assembly in its resolution 51/219, section I. The programme of work must still be reviewed by the Committee for Programme and Coordination (CPC), the Advisory Committee on Administrative and Budgetary Questions (ACABQ) and the Fifth Committee (Administrative and Budgetary) and approved by the General Assembly at its fifty-second session.
It has been prepared in accordance with the guidelines set out in the General Assembly and Economic and Social Council resolutions and takes into account the Programme of Action adopted by the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development held in Cairo.
The proposed programme of work has been designed to: undertake follow- up activities relating to the Cairo Conference; carry out research of the highest priority at the global level; disseminate research findings in the most effective manner possible; and provide substantive support for technical cooperation in the field of population.
The Commission also has before it the proposed programme of work for the biennium 1998-1999: population (Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis of the United Nations Secretariat) (document E/CN.9/1997/CRP.1). It contains relevant extracts from the proposed programme budget for the biennium 1998-1999 of the Department of Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis.
Also before the Commission was the Secretary General's report on world demographic trends (document E/CN.9/1997/9), which provides an overview of the latest demographic trends worldwide as assessed in the fifteenth round of the official United Nations population estimates and projections, the 1996 Revision. Prepared in accordance with resolution 1996/2 of the Economic and Social Council, the report includes information for all countries on the latest trends in population size and growth, fertility, mortality and international migration. As in past Revisions, population estimates and projections were prepared for the world, the more developed regions, less
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developed regions, least developed countries, six major areas, 20 regions and 228 countries or areas.
At mid-1996, world population stood at 5.77 billion persons. Between 1990 and 1995, world population grew at 1.48 per cent per annum, significantly below the 1.72 per cent per annum at which population had been growing for the past two decades. The current population growth rate is the lowest since the Second World War and marks the resumption of the trends of declining growth rates that prevailed from the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s. United Nations fertility projections indicate that the population growth rate would continue declining, to 1.37 per cent per annum in 1995 to 2000 and to 0.45 per cent in 2045 to 2050. Consequently, world population is projected to reach 6.09 billion in the year 2000 and 9.37 billion in 2050.
Between 1990 and 1995, the population of the less developed regions grew at 1.77 per cent per annum. During that period, the population of the more developed regions grew at 0.4 per cent per annum. According to the medium-variant projections, the population of the less developed regions will increase by a further 79 per cent between 1996 and 2050. In contrast, the population of the more developed regions is expected to increase to 1.22 billion by 2025 and decline thereafter, so that the population in 2050 will be 1 per cent lower than in 1996.
Population distribution and population growth differ markedly among the major areas of the world, both historically and currently. Africa continues to exhibit the most rapid current population growth rate -- 2.7 per cent per annum in 1990 to 1995. Latin America and the Caribbean is growing a full percentage point slower (at 1.7 per cent per annum). Asia is growing at 1.5 per cent per annum, Oceania at 1.4 per cent and North America at 1 per cent.
The major area where population has been growing most slowly is Europe, whose population is nearly stationary, yet the four regions of Europe have experienced very different recent trends in population growth, the report states. Western Europe is exhibiting the highest annual population growth rate among the more developed regions -- 0.56 per cent per annum during 1990 to 1995. The rising growth rate for western Europe is mainly due to increasing numbers of net migrants entering the region, particularly into Germany. In contrast, the population growth rate of eastern Europe turned negative during the period 1990 to 1995. Those years were characterized by out-migration, sharp fertility declines and rising or stagnant mortality in a number of countries.
Mortality continued to decline in most countries of the world, according to the report. At the global level, life expectancy at birth reached 64.3 years in 1990 to 1995, an increase of 6.4 years from 1970 to 1975. Life expectancy at birth in the more developed regions was 74.2 years, more than 12
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years higher than in the less developed regions (62.1 years), which was in turn more than 12 years higher than the average life expectancy for least developed countries (49.7 years). Life expectancy is highest in the major areas constituting North America (76.2 years), followed by Europe (72.7 years) and Oceania (72.9 years), and is lowest in Africa (51.8 years). Asia and Latin America had life expectancies of 64.5 years and 68.5 years, respectively.
The infant mortality rate for the world as a whole was estimated to be 62 deaths per 1,000 births in 1990 to 1995. In the more developed regions, the infant mortality rate was 11 per thousand, but the corresponding rate is more than six times as large, 68 per 1,000 births, in the less developed regions. The ratio of infant mortality in less developed regions to that in the more developed regions has increased from about 5:1 in 1970 to 1975 to slightly more than 6:1 in 1990 to 1995.
Over the past decade, the report states, international migration had been the population component most clearly affected by changes in the world geopolitical order, particularly the disintegration of nation States, which had resulted in significant population movements. However, the available estimates of international migration were generally partial (referring to only a few countries or regions) and lack comparability. Such estimates have now been derived for the years 1965, 1975, 1985 and 1990. Before the most recent period was considered, the nature of those global estimates and the migration trends that they reveal would be considered.
At the world level, the estimates obtained indicate that the stock of international migrants increased from 75 million persons in 1965 to 120 million by 1990. The experience of developed and developing countries contrasts markedly. Thus, the annual growth rate of the international migrant stock in developed countries increased only moderately, rising from 2.3 per cent per annum during 1965 to 1975 to 2.4 per cent during 1985 to 1990. For the same comparable periods, the total number of migrants in the developing countries increased ninefold, rising from 0.3 per cent to 2.7 per cent.
Despite the rapid growth in the number of international migrants in developing countries, by 1990 they accounted for only 55 per cent of the world's migrant stock, whereas developing countries accounted for 72 per cent of the world population. Consequently, the proportion of international migrants among the total population of developing countries remains low (1.6 per cent of the total). In contrast, international migrants constitute 4.1 per cent of the population of developed countries.
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Statements
MOHAMMAD ASAEI-ARDAKANI (Iran) said his Government was well aware of the interrelationship between population, sustainable economic growth and sustainable development. Iran's current five-year plan, for 1994 to 1997, contained a strong component on population and family planning, which had been fully integrated into government strategies. The main objectives of the plan were to ensure the achievement of sustainable growth and development. The government also aimed to reduce the growth rate, fertility rate and mortality rate.
He said that Iran's parliament had also recently enacted a family planning law, and gender equality and the empowerment of women had also been given due attention. A bureau of women's affairs was established under the President's office in 1993 with a mandate to promote the status of women and ensure their place in the process of development. The family, which was the basic unit of society and the focal point of human development, had also been provided governmental support.
During the past 18 years, Iran's efforts to cope with the challenge of economic and social development had been hampered by an unprecedented influx of more than 3 million refugees from neighbouring countries, including Iraq and Afghanistan, he said. International assistance had been minimal and disproportionate to the number of refugees absorbed by his country. Iran has had to use its own resources in order to accommodate the refugees and displaced persons flooding over its borders. The Government now hoped that the insufficient material and financial support could be rectified with assistance from international agencies and organization. Similarly, Iran recognized the need to hasten inter-agency collaboration to ensure that issues concerning refugees and internally displaced persons were considered adequately by the bodies and organizations within the United Nations system.
MOLELEKENG RAPOLAKI (Lesotho) said 46 per cent of Lesotho's female population were of child-bearing age. However, their minority status hindered the availability of family planning options and contraceptives. In the field of population, the Government was currently aiming to reduce the fertility rate through provisional family planning services, with the help of non- governmental organizations. It had introduced a comprehensive population education program for youths.
The Population Executive Committee, which was a working arm of the Population Council, initiated a comprehensive strategy in 1996, which was a necessary tool to increase awareness on population issues and foster political commitment and enhance support for population programs, she continued. The Government had also recognized the importance of empowering women in ensuring the country's successful economic development, and a gender policy was
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introduced to do away with discriminatory laws and policies and to promote equity between the sexes. That policy would soon be ready for public consideration, as a preparatory stage before adoption.
Migration from rural areas to urban areas had also taken its toll on her country, she said. To address the issue of internal migration, the Government had decentralized health services, so they were able to provide services in outlying areas. It would also continue providing clean drinking water in rural areas, as well as embark on activities to augment the clean water supply in urban areas. Regarding international migration, Lesotho's population had been migrating mostly to South Africa. Statistical data was not available concerning the number of highly educated migrants from Lesotho, but there was also an intense influx of migrants from other African and Asian countries. That could mean that Lesotho was somehow being compensated for its loss in labour supply.
Discussion on Population Division Programme Performance
JOSEPH CHAMIE, Director of the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, said, as many delegates were aware, the economic and social sectors of the United Nations were in the process of undergoing restructuring at the initiative of Secretary-General Kofi Annan. While he was unable to offer any concrete suggestions on likely future developments, he could tell Commission members that the restructuring was not considered an event, but a process which was being carried out by the Secretary-General in consultation with all the relevant parties. The process involved streamlining and increased efficiency. Members of the Commission were invited to express their views on those vital issues.
The research and publications carried out by the Population Division were often the underlying foundations for the innumerable reports, statements, meetings, conferences and databases prepared by others working in the United Nations system, in the private sector and in numerous non-governmental organizations, he said. A strong Population Division was essential to meet the current and future needs of many users. A weak Division, on the other hand, would have serious negative consequences on the work of numerous other organizations that relied on it.
So far as the work programme for the period 1996-1997 was concerned, the Division's activities had been classified under five sub-programmes, he said. Those included: analysis of demographic variables at the world level; world population projections; population policy and socio-economic development; monitoring, review and appraisal, coordination and dissemination of population information; and technical cooperation. In addition, on many occasions the Division had contributed and collaborated with others in the United Nations system.
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At its twenty-ninth session, the Commission had adopted resolution 1996/1, which had recognized the need for a reappraisal of the shape, content and structure of work programme at the thirtieth session and had asked the Director of the Division to consult with members on that issue, he said. To that end, he had written letters to Commission members shortly after the twenty-ninth session and had conducted numerous discussions with them. Numerous discussions had also been conducted within the Secretariat. Finally, in consultation with members of the bureau, he had convened a meeting to review the work programme. Upon the invitation of Belgium, that meeting had been held in Brussels from 28 to 29 June 1996. The report of that meeting would be made available to the Commission.
The Population Division benefitted a great deal from the presence of junior professional officers from a number of countries, he said. He thanked the Governments of Germany, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden for providing the resources that had permitted talented young people to work alongside the Division and invited other countries to give serious consideration to participating in that programme.
ANDRAS KLINGER (Hungary), former Chairman of the Commission, said he would summarize the conclusions and recommendations made by the bureau. The bureau strongly emphasized that the core areas of population research should not be affected by any changes to the Population Division. It also complemented the Population Division for its technical and scientific work and reaffirmed that it should maintain its high standards, based on objective scientific principles in the areas of population and development. The Population Division should also maintain its collaboration with other scientific institutions inside and outside the United Nations system, while giving greater attention to coordination with other commissions which shared common goals.
The bureau also recommended that the current Mortality and Migration Division should be divided into two sections, to help increase the productivity of the Population Division, he said. The Fertility and Family Planning section should be renamed the "Fertility and Reproductive Health Section". The bureau noted that there was a need for the Population Division to reinforce its public image. It should, therefore, work to widely disseminate its publications.
AMINUR ROHMAN KHAN, Chief, Fertility and Family Planning Section of the Population Division, said a study entitled "Child Survival, Health and Family Planning Programmes and Fertility", which examined the relationship between mortality and fertility in the context of socio-economic development, had been published. Its salient conclusion was that an improved coverage of population by the institutions that provided basic health and family planning services would lead to significant reductions in fertility and childhood mortality.
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The third global monitoring report on contraceptive use, entitled "Levels and Trends of Contraceptive Use as Assessed in 1994" had covered 119 countries and about 90 per cent of the world's population, he said. It was estimated that 57 per cent of couples, with the wife of reproductive age, were using some form of contraception in and around 1990. By 1996, the contraceptive prevalence rate had probably reached 60 per cent, given the increasing trend in contraceptive use. The report had also showed that in some regions, an exclusive focus on contraceptive use among married women had ignored a sizeable population of unmarried women in need of family planning services.
Another study entitled "Family Planning Process: An Approach to Evaluation of the Impact of Family Planning Programmes" had been completed, he said. The study stated that family-building could be more realistically viewed as a succession of decisions whether and when to have another child, than as a once and for all decision to have a specified number of children. In 1996, work had continued on a study entitled "Evolving Patterns of Fertility Behaviour in Developing Countries", which examined levels and trends in fertility as indicated by new data. Also, work had continued on a report entitled "Measurements of the Quality of Family Planning Services: Issues and Challenges". That report examined the general issues of institutionalized monitoring of the quality of services.
CHARLOTTE HOEHN (Germany) said she supported what Mr. Klinger had reported regarding the renaming of the section "The Fertility and Reproductive Health Section". She also asked if the 1996 World Monitoring Report on Reproductive Rights and Reproductive Health was ready for publication.
Y.N. CHATURVEDI (India) said his delegation was somewhat concerned about the studies on fertility and family planning. Many of them were essentially reviews and extended analysis of data that had been collected by the fertility bureaus of different countries. If there was a resource crunch and a need for the reallocation of resources, perhaps some studies should be eliminated. If population projections were reviewed every four years instead of two, a little would be lost and perhaps the quality of the reports could be enhanced. That issue should be considered by the Commission and by the Population Division.
RAJ KARIM (Malaysia) said the studies conducted by the Population Division were extremely useful. The findings were particularly useful for developing countries, where they were helpful to policy planners. She stressed that the salient findings of such studies should be widely distributed and technical assistance and resources should be made available to countries to help them put relevant studies to use.
ANTONIO GOLINI (Italy) said he wanted to make a comment on the proposal made by the representative of India. Population estimates were the keystone
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to the Population Division's activity. Every two years, policy makers awaited the Division's estimates and projections. It had to be kept in mind that those projections were the summing up of fertility and mortality trends. Therefore, it would be unwise to postpone the publication of the population projections.
HANIA ZLOTNIK, Chief, Mortality and Migration Section, said her report would focus on the activities carried out in the areas of mortality and migration under sub-programme 1, entitled "The analysis of demographic variables at the world level". A special study, to be published later this year under the title Too Young to Die: Genes or Gender, provided a comprehensive view of the female disadvantages in mortality during childhood.
A major conclusion of the study was that discrimination against girls in ways that affected their health and survival was by no means universal in developing countries, she said. However, because the few countries in which such discrimination existed accounted for a sizeable proportion of the world's population, the impact of female disadvantage was significant. Therefore, it was estimated that an excess of 250,000 died each year because of those disadvantages. The policy prescription for those countries was to press ahead with reforms that enhanced the economic opportunities of women by providing them with education and promoting their productive employment.
In the area of international migration, the Population Division participated in revising the United Nations recommendations on statistics of international migration and preparing the draft set of revised recommendations, she said. The recommendations provided guidelines on the compilation of data on flows and data on stocks. The new recommendations on flow data presented a framework for the compilation of flow statistics, which permitted a better understanding of the meaning and scope of the data yielded by the different sources. It was hoped that the use of that framework would enhance the transparency and availability of international migration data.
In the area of internal migration, work on the estimates of the components of urban growth was completed and the results were presented in a chapter of the World Economic and Social Survey for 1996, she said. The findings implied that the growth of the urban population in a large part of the developing world was being driven manly be natural increases, which had important policy implications. A report analysing in greater detail the experiences of the different countries for which estimates were available was being prepared.
Mr. KLINGER (Hungary) said it was questionable if work undertaken on mortality, especially child and infant mortality by sex, should be a priority. There were more interesting mortality issues that could be subject to analysis. Also, in speaking about the problems of developing countries in
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that area of mortality, it was necessary to state that the situation was far different in developed countries. Differences in mortality by gender changed as people aged, and it would be better to show the picture of the entire world on that subject.
Ms. HOEHN (Germany) said she found it surprising that such a narrow scope had been taken, considering that next year's topic was health and mortality. Was it the intention to limit next year's special topic to children and infant mortality? It would be better to keep the topic broad and inclusive.
Mr. GOLINI (Italy) said his comments were in line with the statements by Hungary and Germany. The intention of the report seemed to be to attract the attention of policy makers in some developing countries. There were also very severe disadvantages in mortality for males in adult ages. For next year's session it would be preferable to pay more attention to mortality in all ages.
EASTON WILLIAMS (Jamaica) said he shared the concerns expressed by the previous speakers that the survivorship by sex should relate primarily to childhood, as genes played a significant part in the early part of life. He also agreed that the section dealing with mortality and migration should be separated into two separate units.
RICHARD CORNELIUS (United States) said Dr. Zlotnik and colleagues should be congratulated for their excellent work. They should be commended for their important work done in collaboration with the Statistical Division in developing the new recommendation for statistics in international migration. In addition, it was important to consider how those new recommendations would now be used and disseminated.
Mr. CHATURVEDI (India) said he joined his colleagues in supporting the strong case for separating the mortality section from the one on migration. It must also be stressed that in India there was much concern regarding the deficit of women in its population, which was currently 6 to 7 per cent. He was very happy to see that the Population Division had completed a study on excess female mortality in childhood. The disadvantage in survivorship was indeed concentrated in the age group of 1 to 4 years. It was hoped that in the course of work for next year's session, emphasis would be on gender differences in the entire age range.
SAM OTUYELU (Nigeria) said he joined the representative of the United States in his comments about the statistics on international migration. There seemed to have been less emphasis on quantifying women migrants, and the study had been limited to the period 1985 to 1990. He urged the Secretariat to work on differentials in migration, because women were migrating on almost the same level as men. He added that he also supported the statement made by the
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representative of Italy regarding population projections. The Secretariat should endeavour to obtain information from countries who might have conducted a census or demographic sample survey, so they could be included in population projections.
JACQUES VERON (France) said the study gave the impression that there was discrimination only in mortality with respect to young girls. That not might be the intent, but that was the impression given by the report. In order to assess variations in social or physical environment, mortality indicators were not the most suitable. Morbidity indicators were better. Mortality indicators were not sufficiently sensitive to certain kinds of changes or effects.
AAGJE PAPINEAU SALM (Netherlands) said the report of the Population Division did not give any indication of which activities and projects were postponed or canceled due to the financial situation of the Organization.
AURORA PEREZ (Philippines) said she would like to express appreciation for the revised recommendation on immigration statistics. Was there any work ongoing in considering assumptions on international migration when compiling population projects?
Responding to comments, Mrs. ZLOTNIK said the study on excess female mortality in childhood was the first report in the world on the subject. Work on the study was scheduled to be completed last year, and work on a study on adult mortality should have begun last year, but they were delayed because of a lack of resources. The Section was unsure how it would complete the adult mortality report in time for next year's session. She said she would like to remind delegates that the Division had a long history of looking at other differentials by sex in mortality over all ages.
Regarding the Mortality and Migration Section, she said separating the sections would not improve the quality or quantity of the work if more resources were not allocated to the Division. Regarding the comments by the representative of France, the section had enough problems measuring mortality. Measuring morbidity would much more difficult. Yet, the report did feature chapters that related mortality to morbidity.
Mr. CHAMIE, Director of the Population Division, said programme performance for 1994 to 1995 had been published in a report and showed that the rate of programme completion was approximately 90 per cent. The issue of priorities was a perennial issue in the Commission, and the mandate dictated that all areas of development and population be addressed, with a yearly theme on a special topic. He would be happy to undertake more studies and have more meetings. However, resources over the last 4 to 5 years had diminished as the United Nations had been streamlining.
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It was a daunting task to find resources to match the requests of delegations, he continued. Prior to a special theme discussion, such as on health and mortality next year, his Division would arrange for a meeting of experts, and the results of those meetings would be published as supplements. He was pleased to announce that an expert meeting near the end of next year would be held, and it would cover all aspects of health and mortality. Regarding the division of the Mortality and Migration Section, dividing them was difficult because in order for the organization to have a section a minimum number of people was needed. Current financial resources were not available to support two sections.
TAMMAM SULAIMAN (Syria) said he hoped that documents would be issued in Arabic simultaneously with the other languages.
Mr. CHAMIE said official documents would continue to be issued in the six official languages. His division would do its best to issue documents as soon as possible. The only documents issued in one language were reports, and some countries that had wished that the document be translated into their language had assisted the division in the translation of the report.
NANCY YU-PING CHEN, of the Population Estimates and Projections Section, said the Population Division had been preparing the official United Nations population projections for all countries and areas of the world since 1951. The most recent United Nations population projections were to be found in the United Nations 1996 Revision of world population estimates and projections. The detailed report on those projections would be published this year.
The 1996 Revision incorporated a number of changes, she said. The base date had been shifted from 1990 to 1995, so that the series of demographic estimates spanned the period 1950 to 1995, and the four projection variants spanned the period 1995 to 2050. For the first time, detailed demographic estimates by age and sex had been presented for the Gaza Strip, Macau and Western Sahara. In addition, the demographic impact of AIDS had been incorporated for 28 countries, an increase from 16 countries in the previous revision.
According to the 1996 Revision, as of mid-1996, the world population stood at 5.8 billion persons, having grown at an annual rate of 1.5 per cent between 1990 and 1995, she said. On an average, 81 million people were added to the world's population each year. That annual increment was much below the 87 million persons added each year during 1985 to 1990. As a result, the world population today was 29 million less than was expected two years ago. There had been a broader and faster than expected fertility reduction in many developing countries, especially those of south-central Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Recent data that had not been available two years ago had shown that fertility had declined very rapidly in Brazil, India, Kenya, Pakistan, Sudan,
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Syria and Turkey, among others.
The expected size of the world population in 2050 was therefore 9.4 billion persons, she said. In mid-1996, 46 per cent of the world's population lived in urban areas and half of the world's population was expected to be urban by 2007. She stressed that the Division had continued to improve its technology to produce databases and had answered an increased number of requests to provide data. However, in order to improve, respond to new circumstances and meet increasing demands, it would require resources.
Mr. CHATURVEDI (India) said he had been an avid user of the Division's output of projections, and supplements to previous reports could also be very useful. Such supplements could be made available to countries. Keeping that in mind, it would perhaps be possible to usefully postpone the revision for 1998.
Mr. JACQUES (France) said it would be helpful if the Division could provide a brief document on various perspectives, so that delegates could have a better idea of the history of perspectives vis-a-vis population projections.
Ms. HOEHN (Germany) said perhaps it might make sense to issue population projections every five years. However, in 1998 such projections were definitely required because review of the Programme of Action of the Cairo Conference was due in 1999. She also suggested that it would be helpful if the Division could make very long-term projections -- in the range of 100 years.
Mr. WILLIAMS (Jamaica) said the principle of cutting costs without losing information should be followed. Revising projections every three or so years would be a good compromise to begin with, he said.
MIROSLA MACURA, of the Economic Commission for Europe (ECE), said he agreed with the representative of Germany. He appreciated the fact that for the very first time the Division was to provide projections of the "oldest old". As 1999 was the international Year of Older Persons, the ECE was very interested in those projections. He stressed that the 1998 projections should be kept on track.
Responding to comments, Mr. CHAMIE, Director of the Population Division, said the task of making projections was still a daunting one. The very first projections had been made in 1951 without computers. Since then, the science of making projections had come a long way. To begin with, the periodicity had been 5 years. However, the Commission had felt that the gap of 5 years was too long. Therefore, since 1978 the projections had been made every two years. Some delegates, as well as agencies, had wanted the projection annually. However, that would have taken up all the resources of the
Population Commission - 16 - Press Release POP/640 5th Meeting (AM) 26 February 1997
Division, whose projections were used by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), among other agencies.
He stressed that there was a system operating on a biannual basis and changing that system would be difficult. So far as long-term projections were concerned, the Division was seeking funds from a foundation for long-term projections, which would be projections for 100 years and beyond.
ELLEN BRENAN, Chief of the Population Policy Section of the Population Division, said that in recent years work in the Section had focused on four main areas: issues of women's reproductive health; global analysis of population policies; international migration policies; and policies to manage the growth of large urban agglomerations.
In the global analysis of population policies, during 1996, work had continued on a study on world population policies. When completed this year, the study would provide a consolidated one-volume overview of trends in population policies for 190 countries. It would include data sheets showing trends in national population policies from 1976 to 1996 for each of the 190 countries, including information on new and emerging areas of policy concern, such as adolescent fertility and HIV/AIDS. The Section would continue to produce its Global Review and Inventory of Population Policies. The most recent such review had been published in early 1996.
During 1996, international migration had been the area of population policy that had received the greatest attention, she said. The Section's comprehensive study on international migration had been completed and was currently awaiting publication. That study aimed at a better understanding of migratory problems and responses, by offering a comparative overview of policies in regard to permanent settlement, labour migration, refugee and asylum flows and undocumented migration. In addition, it examined issues such as family reunification, nationality and citizenship, and policies dealing with the economic, social, political and cultural integration of migrants.
SALLY EVANS, of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, commended the Division on the outstanding world monitoring report. That report had highlighted migration, an area which was difficult to analyse. She asked if the Division would share its report with her organization's international committee. A strong statistical system was important. It was crucial to have statistics of stability, consistency and comparability. Her organization could assist in analysing and disseminating data, for it shared an interest in migration. It would also hold a conference on migration in Beijing this year and would be happy to exchange papers from that conference with the Population Division.
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