Press conference by UN Avian Flu Coordinator

 

Experts were “very challenged” by the expansion in incidents of avian influenza that had occurred during the last three months, as it had moved through Eastern Europe into Western Europe, to the Middle East and into Africa, United Nations System Avian Influenza Coordinator David Nabarro told correspondents at a Headquarters press conference this afternoon.

Giving an update on the latest developments since his last press conference of 11 January, just before an international conference on the issue in Beijing, China, he said colleagues from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and from the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE, for “Office International des Epizooties”) expected continued expansion across the contiguous continents and perhaps even to other continents as well.

He said the transfer of H5NI virus by wild birds was a matter of concern, as they were able to carry the virus while remaining asymptomatic (although swans seemed to die from the disease).  That fact caused complications for prevention and H5N1 eradication and surveillance of wild birds needed to be increased.  In that regard, the FAO, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the OIE were working together.  The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) was particularly engaged, as were wildlife organizations and a large international conference on the issue had been planned in June.  Wild birds were not targeted in prevention strategies.  The idea was that if the virus was reduced in domestic poultry, transfer to wild birds would also be reduced.

Addressing the situation in the world by geographical areas, he said there were many reports about the H5N1 virus being found in dead wild birds in an increasing number of countries in Western Europe, but few in domestic poultry populations.  The fact that one or two cats had been infected was not seen as a major transmission risk.  More research on the potential role of other mammals in transmission was needed.

There was a regional crisis in Western Africa, he said.  Although two countries -- Nigeria and the Niger -- were now affected, the virus was expected to spread to other countries.  A lot of preparatory work was on the way there.  From the Middle East, reports had come in from Egypt, Iran and Iraq.  There were also reports from Eastern Europe.  Reports of human cases of avian flu from Indonesia and China were particularly distressing.

He said 50 per cent of the population in Western Africa lived below the poverty line, and for many, backyard poultry was a substantial form of savings and income generation.  The poor did not have money, however, to build chicken coops or buy soap for better hygiene.  The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) was concerned about the risk to children, as they traditionally took care of the poultry.  He was trying to develop culturally sensitive measures to reduce those risks.

The WHO was holding a major meeting this week on how the world could contain a flu pandemic in its earliest stage, with Governments and the private sector participating, he said.  A major issue was how to get all containment assets quickly to a place of outbreak.  A report on the issue would be published tomorrow.

He was pleased to report the work done by a number of Governments with the FAO and the OIE in assembling a team of emergency veterinarians ready to travel to trouble spots at a moment’s notice.  That “Brigade”, as it was informally called, was comparable to United Nations peacekeepers, as they would be sent by Member States and operate under FAO and OIE supervision.  The Brigade could make a huge difference in countries with an over-stretched veterinary infrastructure.

As for funding, he said he had been working closely with the World Bank on how countries could quickly obtain money from donors.  Twenty-two countries had projects appraised by the World Bank in order to access the offered $500 million in low interest loans.  The multi-donor trust fund set up in Beijing in January was waiting to receive donations from the Russian Federation, China and the European Commission, which should arrive shortly.  The fund was attractive to countries because of its process of releasing grant money quickly.

He had also been concentrating on a United Nations contingency plan for the outbreak of a human pandemic, he said.  On Monday, an effective exercise had been conducted with senior management in New York.  Guidance would be published shortly.  Visits were planned to Nigeria, the European Commissions and countries in Asia.  He would also meet with the League of Arab States.  Moreover, he would attend a meeting of 40 African countries on preparedness in Liberville, Gabon, on 21 March.

“Frankly, there will be a pandemic, sooner or later”, he replied to a correspondent’s question.  It might be due to H5N1 or to some other influenza virus.  It could start any time.  At this stage of a pandemic alert, there was a “luxury” to prepare.  Once a pandemic started, with human to human transmission, preparations would be put to the test in containment and reducing impact.  “We have to behave as though this could start any time, because if we don’t, we will put off getting prepared”, he said.

Answering a question about the state of preparedness in Africa, Mr. Nabarro said that within one week after the first reports of avian flu in Nigeria had come in, a team of United Nations agencies had started to travel throughout Western Africa to start working on preparedness with Governments, particularly regarding veterinarian services.  The Liberville meeting would take their findings into account.

Asked about the exercise in the United Nations, he explained that he had conducted two “simulation” exercises with a senior management group.  One scenario assumed that an established pandemic in Asia was spreading into Eastern Europe and Africa, but not into North America.  The exercise on how the United Nations would respond to Member States’ needs went very well.  Another scenario addressed the United Nations’ actions regarding staff safety and provision of essential and political services once a pandemic had reached North America, including New York.  A detailed plan for such an eventuality would be developed within weeks.

To a question on whether the situation in China was getting out of control, he said that China was experiencing an “epizootic” (an epidemic outbreak of disease in an animal population) transforming into a “panzootic” (a widely distributed epizootic, often affecting more than one host species).  Because wild birds were involved, it was tricky to give exact predictions.  However, like with a fire, the outbreak could be controlled with the right strategies.  He stressed that the Chinese authorities were aware of the risks and that the level of cooperation was “remarkable”.  Indonesia was a geographically challenging country in which the organization of veterinary services was very difficult.  Authorities were trying hard, but ways needed to be found to assist them.

He could not give an assessment on when the H5N1 virus might migrate to the Americas, he replied to another question.  There was a flyway of migratory birds from Africa over the Atlantic to the Arctic and into Alaska.  Another flyway came from Alaska south into North America.  An outbreak could take place during the upcoming northern spring.  Half a year later, birds would start moving south.  A possible outbreak could, therefore, take place between 6 and 12 months from now.

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For information media • not an official record