Press conference by POPULATION DIVISION DIRECTOR, LAUNCHING REPORT

‘POPULATION CHALLENGES AND DEVELOPMENT GOALS’

Over the last decade, research had shown that population trends could provide favourable conditions for economic growth, Hania Zlotnick, Director, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, told correspondents this morning at Headquarters at the launch of a report entitled “Population Challenges and Development Goals”.

The decline in fertility that had taken place in the majority of developing countries since 1970 meant that the share of children had been declining in the total population, and that the population of working age was getting a “bigger share of the pie”, including in big developing countries such as India, China, Brazil and Mexico, she said.  That fact produced a favourable condition for development because there would be more potential workers than potential consumers over five to six decades.

If that “window of opportunity” was used well, it was possible to increase economic growth, Ms. Zlotnick continued.  In the newly industrialized countries in South-East Asia, about 15 per cent of the high economic growth achieved since 1980 had been associated with the favourable demographic conditions, according to studies.  Economists agreed that without sustained economic growth, reduction of poverty and hunger, as emphasized by the Millennium Declaration, would not be possible.

Provided that sound macroeconomic and social policies were undertaken, the population trends in many developing countries were propitious for economic growth, she said.  Those Trends, if achieved, would benefit most the least developed countries and poor countries that still had very high fertility levels of around five children per woman.  Countries with fertility levels of six to eight tended to be the poorest in the world and would benefit greatly from fertility-reduction programmes, especially targeting the poorest population.  There were some middle-income countries where fertility had declined a lot, but they had not yet benefited from the “population bonus” because they had not created jobs necessary to absorb the growing labour force.  Better education would help in that regard.

She said, at its thirty-eighth session last April, the Commission on Population and Development had agreed that full implementation of the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICDP) (the Cairo Programme of Action) could make a very important contribution towards attainment of the universally agreed development goals, including those contained in the Millennium Declaration.  The Programme of Action included the development goals that were almost identical to some of the Millennium Development Goals, in particular those goals related to child mortality and maternal mortality. 

Among synergies between the Millennium Development Goals and the Programme of Action, she mentioned education, child mortality, and women’s empowerment.  The Cairo Programme of Action had also mentioned a more equitable distribution that would raise the status of the most vulnerable.  In many cases, the population bonus had not produced a more equitable distribution of the benefits and had been used by the well-off. 

Asked about the ageing of the population in developed countries, Ms. Zlotnick said the developed world still had 20 workers for every 10 dependants, a very beneficial ration for that indicator.  The developing world used to have 12 workers for 10 dependants, which had now grown to 18 workers.  The least developed countries had about 12 workers.  By the middle of the century, the developed world would have 15 workers per 10 dependants and was preparing for that.  However, new research indicated that as people lived longer, they tended to save more.  Those savings could be channelled into productive investments.

Regarding a correspondent’s question about the situation in China, she said that the fertility rate in China had declined steadily since the 1960s, and had reached the under-replacement level of around 1.7 children per woman, whereas the developed world had had to contend with the baby boom.  In about 30 years, China would reach the same stage as the developed world was in now.  The challenge was to reach, during that short “window of opportunity”, the same levels of development as those existing in the developed world.  India, which had a fertility rate of 2.8, would experience ageing in about 20 to 30 years.  It was growing fast, thanks to implementation of macroeconomic policies.

Asked about Brazil, with its young population, she said that country, although advanced in its estimated fertility rate of 2.2, had used about half of the period granted by the demographic bonus.  However, the country had not been successful in using that bonus for as great a growth as China.  It had not been able to provide adequate jobs for its extra labour force.  Brazil’s challenge was to improve its prospects for development and face the fact that in about 30 to 35 years, its population would be ageing rapidly.  It was one of the countries in Latin America that was already taking measures to prevent poverty among older people, among other things, through some kind of social security provision.

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For information media • not an official record