PRESS BRIEFING ON POPULATION DIVISION REPORT

PRESS BRIEFING ON POPULATION DIVISION REPORT

In 2300, the world’s population would be approximately 9 billion –- an increase of nearly 3 billion over the current population –- according to the “medium” scenario envisaged in the “World Population in 2300” report, presented today by Joseph Charmie, Director of the Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, at a Headquarters press briefing.

The report, which will be discussed at an expert-level meeting today at Headquarters, also contained “high”, “low” and “constant” scenarios over the same period.  It represented a departure from past practice, both in its focus on the world 300 years from now, as well as in its use of country specific, instead of continent specific, projections.

Cautioning that the scenarios presented in the report were for use today, not in the world of 2300, and were based upon reproduction and fertility rates, as well as mortality and migration, Mr. Charmie said that, given “medium” projections, in which an average reproduction rate of two children per couple was assumed, the world population in 2300 would stabilize at approximately      9 billion.

However, according to the “low” and “high” scenarios, which diverged by only one fourth of a child per couple from the “medium”, the world’s population could either plunge to 2 billion or soar to 36 billion, respectively.  Even more interesting, if current reproduction rates were maintained the global population could reach a staggering 134 trillion.  In the last scenario, population density rates would equal an average of 10 people per square foot of land, exceeding many times over the density of today’s most crowded nations.

Returning to the “medium” scenario, Mr. Charmie said that within the projected 9 billion, Africa’s percentage of world population would double from 13 per cent to nearly 25 per cent, while Europe’s halved, from its current percentage of 12 to 13 per cent to approximately 6 to 7 per cent.  In terms of ageing, whereas today’s average age was 26 years, by 2300, the average age would be 50.  And the percentage of those above the age of 60 years would increase from 10 to 38 per cent of the population.

The motivation for projecting out 300 years, he explained, had been to respond to the needs of colleagues and scientists dealing with such phenomena as the consequences of climate change and other types of behaviour.  Moreover, it provided an opportunity to play out trends that had developed in the 50- and 150-year projections, especially in terms of when stability would be achieved when considering variations in age, fertility rates and life expectancy.

In terms of national policy responses to deal with forecasted declines, Mr. Charmie said that, given the well-below replacement levels of reproduction in many industrialized countries, some States had looked to increased immigration as a solution in the short-term, as increased fertility rates constituted only a long-term solution.  However, some had also looked at adding monetary incentives for increased fertility rates and making labour force participation more compatible with childbearing and childrearing.

Asked about the basis for projecting a change in fertility behaviour around 2075 or 2100 –- when, globally, fertility rates were projected to reach replacement level –- he said that, currently, those countries with low fertility rates were expected to redress the phenomenon of postponement, by which women in their early twenties were waiting until later in life to have children.  It was also expected that governments would take steps to raise fertility.

With reference to the impact of HIV/AIDS upon the projections contained in the report, he said the disease had been taken into account in medium-range projections, where its impact was devastating, especially in sub-Saharan Africa.  In the next 10 to 50 years, AIDS was forecasted to have a dramatic effect on population growth.  Estimates for world population in 2050 had been brought down by 400 million –- half of that due to the impact of the disease.  Furthermore, the worst was yet to come.  The number of deaths from AIDS would increase as those currently infected died in the years to come.

However, in the long-term, AIDS was seen to have a limited effect.  Assumptions related to behavioural change and increased treatment and prevention showed the AIDS epidemic becoming endemic –- like that of tuberculosis, malaria and other diseases in today’s world.

On the geopolitical front, continued Mr. Charmie, it would be wise for those considering such issues as United Nations reform to take into account projected population changes.  For example, whereas after the Second World War, Pakistan was a country with one third the population of the Russian Federation, by mid-century Pakistan would have three times the population of the Russian Federation.  And similar changes were predicted for Africa.

Finally, asked how likely it was that the “medium”, rather than the “low” or “high” scenarios, would actually come about, Mr. Charmie acknowledged that a careful demographer would consider each scenario equally likely.  However, he himself had observed that people wanted to have children, but that replacement rates would not be achieved for some time.  Therefore, his best guess was that  9 billion by 2300 was not far off the mark.

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