PRESS BRIEFING BY POPULATION DIVISION

Demographically, the world was living in an unprecedented age, Joseph Chamie, Director of the Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, told correspondents this afternoon at a Headquarters press briefing.

Presenting an update on the demographics of population ageing, and a new wall chart prepared by the Division, he said that the pace of ageing today was much faster than had been anticipated in the past and its implications were becoming more evident. 

He said population ageing was occurring for two reasons -- declining fertility and declining mortality, or increasing longevity.  The world had gone through a transformation of being able to reduce death rates.  More recently, the world had been able to reduce fertility because women, and men, had decided on the number and spacing of their children and had chosen to have smaller families.  As a result of the smaller families, the age structure was changing and an increasing number of people were in the upper ages -- 60 and above. 

The ageing process was pervasive, affecting every man, woman and child in every country and region of the world, he said.  In addition, its implications were profound, having an impact on economic growth, savings, investment, taxation, pensions and the labour market.  Further, ageing was an enduring process, a trend which would accelerate in the twenty-first century.  In 1950, for example, 8 per cent of the world was in the elderly population (60 and above).  Today, that figure was 10 per cent and by mid-century it would be 21 per cent.

Japan, he said, was the "oldest" country with a median age of 41, with Italy, Germany and Switzerland close behind.  In comparison, the younger populations, such as Niger, Uganda and Yemen, had an average age of 15.  Japan was going through a very rapid period of ageing.  While France had taken 114 years to increase its elderly population from 7 per cent to 14 per cent, Japan had made that transformation in just 24 years.  Its continued low fertility rate, as well as its migration policies were among the major factors.

He noted that the majority of the elderly were women, because women lived longer than men.  That was particularly the case in the developed world, as there were still cases of high female mortality in some developing countries.  Women's mortality rates were lower at every age.  They were healthier than men and less at risk for many diseases.  That might be related to their responsibility for reproduction.

Asked to comment on the impact of HIV/AIDS on the projections, Mr. Chamie said that the epidemic had a substantial impact on the age structure, population figures and the ageing process of countries.  In the coming years, many countries would witness decreasing growth rates, with countries like South Africa witnessing negative growth rates. 

With regard to military action, he said its impact was relatively small in most cases, in terms of the number of deaths, as compared to the number of deaths

among the civilian population.  In general, AIDS dwarfed the number of deaths resulting from military action.  Prior to the HIV/AIDS crisis, one of the biggest killers in the twentieth century was influenza. 

Referring to the public policy challenges posed by the ageing trends, he said that issues of pensions, retirement benefits and long-term health care would increasingly dominate political debates in the future.  He noted that the issues of pensions and social security came up in every debate in the last United States presidential election.  In addition, someone who was 25 had a very different outlook than someone who was 65.  In that respect, their voting patterns and preferences would be very different.  Thus, changes could be expected in the electoral patterns due to ageing.

In closing, he introduced a new concept of a millionaire, which he had come up with, known as a "longevity millionaire" -- a person who would live a million hours, or 114 years.  While it sounded strange today, it would become increasingly the case in years to come.

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