PRESS BRIEFING BY DIRECTOR, POPULATION DIVISION

The remarkable decline in global fertility over the past 35 years should be viewed as good news, as it meant that men and women were having greater control over the number and spacing of their children, Joseph Chamie, Director, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, told correspondents this morning at a Headquarters press briefing.

Mr. Chamie was briefing the press on the Division’s Expert Group Meeting on “Completing the Fertility Transition”, which was taking place at Headquarters from 11 to 14 March.  Joining him were John Caldwell, Professor, Australian National University, and Alaka Basu, Professor, Harvard Centre for Population and Development Studies. 

In the twentieth century, stated Mr. Chamie, the world was undergoing a revolutionary demographic transition.  The Expert Meeting was dealing with one aspect of that transition, namely the change in fertility rates.  There had been a series of meetings in the past few years dealing with the issue of fertility transition.  In 1997, meetings were held to examine the low fertility countries, such as Japan, Europe and North America, in which the average was less than two children per woman.  Last year, the high fertility countries were examined, those in which women on average had more than five children.

The current Meeting, he said, was examining the 74 countries in the middle, the 74 intermediate fertility countries, in which women were having somewhere between two and five children.  Those countries were following the same pattern that had been observed in Japan, Europe and North America.  It had been suggested that many of those intermediate fertility countries were likely to go below the average of two and achieve patterns of fertility similar to those seen in the West.  The summary of the meeting would serve to guide future fertility projections.

Mr. Caldwell said that the demographic transition –- the decline in mortality and fertility levels –- was in many ways the social side of the industrial revolution.  What was seen in recent years was fertility coming to lower levels than had ever been anticipated.  Most of the change had occurred in the last 30 years.  Forty-four per cent of the world’s population now lived in countries where the birth rate was below the death rate, which in the long run meant that the population would decline.  About 44 per cent of the population in Asia was also below long-term replacement levels.

For the first time, he continued, it was possible to have, within

100 years or so, a world whose population was declining.  It was possible for countries to move to a position of very low fertility, known as below replacement fertility, such as in Italy and Spain.  The most popular explanation for that had been the fact that Italian women in the workforce received little support from husbands or governments.  Therefore, it was difficult for them to have more than one child if they wished to remain in the workforce.  Over the next 50 years, a large part of the world’s population would move towards below replacement fertility.

Referring to the situation in South Asia, Ms. Basu expressed mixed feelings about what was likely to happen to fertility rates in that region.  It was true that fertility had declined all over South Asia, including in India, particularly in the last 15 years.  However, she would not attribute that solely to women’s education and empowerment.  A very important part of that decline was rising consumerism. 

Exposure to the media, she said, had contributed to lower fertility.  Television and radio had penetrated even the most remote areas, and people were discovering products they would like to purchase.  The only way they could afford those things was if they cut down expenses in other areas.  One way to cut expenses was to have fewer members in the household sharing the same amount of resources. 

Also, she continued, while birth rates were coming down rapidly, there was nothing to suggest that it would continue to do so in the future.  In that sense, South Asia was different from other regions.  While people could understand that it made sense to have two children instead of four, it was it was more difficult for them to believe that it made sense to have one child instead of two.  There was a high level of son-preference and a strong historical and cultural tradition of marriage.  One of the reasons countries in the West had reduced their birth rates was because fewer women were getting married.  In a country like India, that would be unheard of, she emphasized. 

In addition, she highlighted the continued importance of family planning programmes.  The role of population policies and family planning programmes could not be dismissed even as fertility rates were declining, as they provided crucial information and services. 

In response to questions, Mr. Chamie said that the ability to choose the number and spacing of children was certainly good news for women and men.  Having greater control over reproduction was a success story, and the United Nations had contributed to that by providing information and programmes for people. 

On the impact of public policy on fertility rates, Ms. Basu noted that public policy had a role up to a point.  It was important to have good family planning programmes because that facilitated access to information and services.  It also legitimized the idea of having fewer children.  Public policies could facilitate, but not force, people to have fewer children.

Mr. Chamie added that in the 1950s, many demographers believed that Catholics would have higher fertility than Protestants in many countries.  Indeed, differentials were found in the United States.  However, those differentials had disappeared.  Another belief was that fertility among Muslims would be very high due to Islam.  There were cases, however, such as Iran and Tunisia, where fertility was getting close to two.  Similarly, there were countries like Brazil –- a Catholic country with no official family planning programme -– achieving very low fertility. 

Mr. Caldwell noted that the lowest fertility in the world appeared in Catholic countries -– Italy and Spain.

In closing, Mr. Chamie said that small decisions on family size made at the individual and family level, when compounded globally, had enormous global consequences.