PRESS BRIEFING BY POPULATION DIVISION

PRESS BRIEFING BY POPULATION DIVISION

According to trends, by mid-century 90 per cent of the world's population would be living in the developing region, Joseph Chamie, Director, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, told correspondents at a Headquarters press briefing this morning.

Mr. Chamie was opening a briefing on the Commission on Population and Development's thirty-fourth session, which is taking place at Headquarters this week.  Also present at the briefing were:  Makoto Atoh, President of the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan, and Chair of the thirty-fourth session of the Commission; and  Antonio Golini, Professor of Demography and Director, Department of Demographic Science, University of Rome, and Vice-Chair of the Commission.

The Commission on Population and Development was formerly the Population Commission, which was established by the Economic and Social Council in 1946 to advise it on population changes.  The Commission’s name was changed following the International Conference on Population and Development (Cairo, 1994) and it was also decided that beginning in 1996 it would meet annually to assess implementation of the Cairo Programme of Action.

Outlining trends for the next 50 years, Mr. Chamie said that by mid-century the world's population would be much larger, with an increase of two if not three billion people.  Second, the population would be significantly older.  The proportion above 65 years, for example, was expected to double, moving from 7 to 16 per cent.  Third, most of the growth would take place in the developing world.

According to Mr. Chamie, the top contributors to growth would be India, Pakistan, China, Nigeria Bangladesh and Indonesia, with India head and shoulders above the others.  Those six countries were responsible for 60 per cent of the world's population growth today.  India's annual growth alone was equal to Pakistan, China and Nigeria combined.

A fourth trend for the next half-century revealed that the world would be more urban, Mr. Chamie said.  In fact, within a decade the majority of the world would be urban -- not rural – dwellers, as had been the case throughout human history.  In addition, it was anticipated that by mid-century there would be greater ethnic and cultural diversity within countries than there is today. 

Concerning the current session of the Commission, Mr. Chamie said the relationships among the three issues of the Commission's theme -- population, environment and development -- were extremely complex and contentious.  Notwithstanding, the theme was selected primarily so that it could provide timely input into the Summit on Sustainable Development to be held in 2002 in Johannesburg, South Africa.

While population, development and the environment were vital to the well-being of all societies, getting international cooperation on the various areas was extremely difficult, Mr. Chamie said.

Mr. Atoh said that during the current session participants had dealt with the interrelationship between population, environment and development and ways to implement the reviews and appraisals of the Cairo Programme of Action in 2004.

Mr. Atoh said the issue of interrelationship was a very complex one.  There was, however, consensus on the need for a comprehensive and holistic approach to understand the issue itself scientifically and also to tackle it at policy level.  Many countries, from both developed and developing regions, had already taken into account environmental issues in their own developmental plans.

Mr. Atoh said that one of the questions addressed the extent to which demographic factors contributed to environmental degradation. Yet, among delegations, that factor was not the single most important one responsible for such degradation, just one of the few important ones, among others.  Also, environmental change influenced population factors, as well.  One example of that was the Chernobyl disaster in Belarus and Ukraine, which still affected the mortality of children in that area.

Among many developing countries, excessive consumption patterns were more responsible for environmental degradation than population or technological factors, said Mr. Atoh.  The debate was also on resource mobilization.  Developing countries were very concerned about the recent trend of declining flows from developed countries.

Mr. Golini said that in Italy there were more or less 21 million households and 34 million cars.  The fact that there was more than one car per household illustrated the attitude of Italian people when confronted with the issue of excessive consumption.

When one considered that Cairo was held in 1994, the 2004 Review was a landmark in the quest to address population related problems, Mr. Golini said.  "So we would like, on the one hand, to review what happened in the 10 years -- progress made and problems solved – and, on the other hand, we would like to stress the new challenges in the twenty-first century", he said.  "We expect all forms of human relations to change in the near future".

Mr. Golini said another challenge was the ageing of the population.  That was a very positive process, since the alternative was much worse.  Ageing, however, still presented a lot of problems, because of the speed and intensity of the process.  "In Europe we are very concerned about sustainability of social security and welfare systems in light of –- and Japan will join on this -- our rapid ageing process", he said.  Also, the ageing of the working-age population would have a strong impact on European competitiveness, on the one hand, and a strong impact on demographic push and pull forces, on the other.

Noting that population, development and environment had been referred to as contentious issues, a correspondent wanted to know which of the three was the most contentious during the session's current discussions.  Mr. Ato said the issues were contentious not only between developed and developing countries, but also among developed countries. The first issue to be addressed was whether the effect of population growth on environmental degradation was more important than excessive consumption patterns.  That was a very contentious issue.

Mr. Ato said the second contentious issue concerned the fact that some developed countries were attempting to evade the Kyoto Protocol and delegates had expressed concern about that.  It was regrettable that such a thing had happened.  "We have tried to achieve consensus in order to preserve our green, clean planet", he stressed.

Another correspondent noted that the data presented so far was all very analytic and did not really offer any recommendations.  He wanted to know in simple terms what really needed to be done?  Mr. Atoh said he still stressed the holistic approach.  Slower population growth was needed and was inevitable.  "We also try through policy measures to decrease many pollutants or policies and measures that are unfavourable to the environment", he said.  The important thing was technological transfer from developed countries to developing countries, to help the latter preserve their own environment.

Mr. Golini, said that in Italy, for example, there was need for more awareness about patterns of consumption.  Education was, therefore, the key for society as a whole.  There was really no other efficient way to create a new environmental awareness in the population.

Mr. Chamie said that he was optimistic –- that was his immediate reaction.  Population had been a success story.  There was lower mortality and longer life in virtually every country of the world in comparison to 1950.  Also, in nearly every country of the world, fertility was being addressed and people were increasingly controlling the size of their families.

In terms of the environment, continued Mr. Chamie, there had been many improvements in many regions of the world.  And, in terms of development, compared to 1950 many countries of the world were better off now that they were then.  Although there were areas and challenges -- HIV/AIDS and some areas of health and the environment -- his gut feeling was really a very optimistic one.  "The critical challenges are basically under the roof of this building -- international cooperation to deal with global issues", he said.

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