Background Release

COMMISSION ON POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT TO MEET FROM 2 TO 6 APRIL

Population, environment and development will be the focus of the thirty-fourth session of the Commission on Population and Development, to be held at Headquarters from 2 to 6 April.

The twentieth century has been one of unprecedented world population growth, economic development and change in the earth’s physical environment, according to the Secretary-General’s report on world population monitoring.  United Nations population projections show that the world population is likely to exceed

8 billion by 2030.  Relatively rapid and uneven population growth and economic development are occurring simultaneously with environmental degradation.

What is uncertain, continues the report, is the extent to which the size, growth and distribution of population have affected economic development and environmental trends.  Population and development policies, especially those relating to the size, growth and distribution of population, are vital to ensuring sustainable development and safeguarding the environment during the twenty-first century and beyond.

The Secretary-General’s report on world demographic trends notes a net addition of 77 million people per year.  India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and Indonesia account for half of that annual increment.  While the population of the more developed regions is anticipated to change little during the next 50 years, the populations of 39 countries are projected to be smaller than today, including that of the Russian Federation, Italy, Japan and Germany.

The report indicates a worsening of the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in terms of increased morbidity, mortality and population loss.  Globally, the number of older persons (60+) will more than triple, increasing to nearly 2 billion by 2050.  In addition, international migration is projected to remain high during the twenty-first century and have a significant impact on population growth.

The Commission’s thirty-fourth session will look at these and other reports.  It will include a general debate, which will provide for an exchange of views and national experiences, as well as a panel discussion on the topic of population, environment and development.

The Population Commission was established in 1946 by the Economic and Social Council to study and advise the Council on population changes, including through migration, and their effect on economic and social conditions.  Following the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in 1994, the name of the 47-member body was changed to the Commission on Population and Development,

and it was decided that it would meet annually beginning in 1996 to assess implementation of the Programme of Action adopted at the Cairo Conference. 

The ICPD, held in September 1994 in Cairo, Egypt, built a consensus on integrating family planning programmes into a new comprehensive approach to reproductive health services.  Educating and empowering women was recognized as the most effective way to reduce population growth rates and promote sustainable development.  With the adoption of the Programme of Action, the international community set specific resource targets for international population assistance, to enable countries to make reproductive health and family planning accessible to all by no later than 2015.  It also spurred donor countries to significantly increase funding for population-related activities and reaffirmed the global consensus that voluntary family planning decisions are a basic human right of all couples and individuals.

Reports before Commission

The twentieth century has been a century of unprecedented world population growth, economic development and change in the earth’s physical environment, according to the Secretary-General’s report on world population monitoring, 2001: population, environment and development (document E/CN.9/2001/2). 

From 1900 to 2000, world population grew from 1.6 billion to 6.1 billion, with about 85 per cent of the growth having taken place in Asia, Africa and Latin America, states the report.  Although population growth rates are slowing, United Nations population projections show that the world population is likely to exceed 8 billion by 2030.  As was the case in the past, future growth is expected to be uneven –- from 2000 to 2030, the more developed regions are expected to grow by less than 2 per cent, while the less developed regions would grow by over 40 per cent. 

Relatively rapid and uneven population growth and economic development are occurring simultaneously with degradation of aspects of the earth’s physical environment, the report continues.  World food production has increased at a faster rate than population, and more food per capita is available now than ever before in world history.  However, the increasing scarcity and degradation of agricultural and other environmental resources cast serious doubts as to how long food production can surpass population growth. 

Throughout the world many fragile, biologically unique ecosystems, and the many species of plants and animals they contain, are threatened.  Fresh water is already in short supply in some regions –- approximately one third of the world’s population lives in countries classified as experiencing moderate to severe water stress or scarcity –- and future population growth will only increase the pressure on this renewable, but limited, resource.  What is uncertain is the extent to which the size, growth and distribution of population have affected economic development and environmental trends.

According to the report, with globalization, and new and emerging technologies and modes of production and consumption, the relationships among population, environment and development have become issues of heightened concern for governments, the international community and the average citizen.  Population growth, structure and distribution are important aspects of environmental stress, since everyone requires the basic necessities of water, food, clothing, shelter and energy, which directly or indirectly affect the ecosystems.

Government domestic programmes and effective international agreements to curtail environmentally harmful activities are essential, states the report.  However, population pressures are contributing factors to environmental stress.  Population and development policies, especially those relating to the size, growth and distribution of population, are necessary and vital to ensure sustainable development and to safeguard the environment during the twenty-first century and beyond.

The report of the Secretary-General on the flow of financial resources for assisting in the implementation of the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (document E/CN.9/2001/3) notes that there has been some modest progress in the mobilization of financial resources to achieve the goals of that Conference.  Most significantly, there was a sizeable increase in the 1999 level of funding from the private sector, especially foundations, as compared to 1998.  Likewise, development banks increased their loan commitments in 1999. 

However, the report states, both donor countries and developing countries still have a long way to go before reaching ICPD goals.  International population assistance was just over 38 per cent of the $5.7 billion target agreed on at the Conference as the international community’s share in financing the Programme of Action by the year 2000.  While funding has increased since the ICPD, it has not increased at a rate that would ensure mobilizing the required $17 billion by the year 2000.

The majority of developing countries have limited financial resources for population and reproductive health programmes and cannot generate the required funds to implement those programmes.  As a result, they rely heavily on international assistance.  The lack of funding remains one of the chief constraints to the full implementation of the Programme of Action.

The Secretary-General’s report on world demographic trends (document E/CN.9/2001/4) is based on the results of “World Population Prospects:  the 2000 Revision”, the seventeenth round of official United Nations population estimates and projections prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, which is used throughout the United Nations system as the basis for activities requiring population information.

According to the 2000 Revision, world population reached 6.1 billion in mid-2000 and is currently growing at a rate of 1.2 per cent annually, implying a net addition of 77 million people per year.  Six countries account for half of that annual increment -– India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and Indonesia.  By 2050, world population is expected to be between 7.9 and 10.9 billion. 

The population of the more developed regions, estimated at 1.2 billion, states the report, is anticipated to change little during the next 50 years, although fertility levels are expected to remain below the replacement level.  However, by mid-century the populations of 39 countries are projected to be smaller than today, including that of the Russian Federation, Georgia, Ukraine, Italy, Hungary, Japan and Germany.

At the same time, the population of the less developed regions is projected to rise steadily, from 4.9 billion in 2000 to 8.2 billion in 2050, assuming continued declines in fertility.  Particularly rapid growth is expected among the 48 least developed countries, whose population is expected to nearly triple between 2000 and 2050 to 1.8 billion, despite the fact that their fertility is projected to decline markedly in the future.

The 2000 Revision indicates a worsening of the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in terms of increased morbidity, mortality and population loss.  Thus, during the next five years, the number of excess deaths due to AIDS among the

45 most affected countries is estimated at 15.5 million.  Despite the devastating impact of the epidemic, the populations of the most affected countries are expected to be larger by mid-century than today.

Globally, the number of older persons (60+) will more than triple, increasing to nearly 2 billion by 2050, states the report.  The increase in the number of the oldest old (80+) is expected to be even more marked, passing from

69 million in 2000 to 379 million in 2050, more than a five-fold increase.  In more developed regions, the older population has already surpassed the child population, and by 2050 there will be two older persons for every child. 

The report adds that international migration is projected to remain high during the twenty-first century.  The more developed regions are expected to remain net receivers of international migrants, with an average gain of about

2 million per year over the next 50 years.  Because of low fertility, this migration will have a significant impact on population growth.

Also before the Commission is the Secretary-General’s report on programme implementation and progress of work in the field of population in 2000 (document E/CN.9/2001/5), which reviews the progress achieved by the Population Division in implementing its programme of work.  It covers the Division’s activities dealing with the analysis of demographic variables at the world level; world population estimates and projections; population policy and socio-economic development; monitoring, coordination and dissemination of population information; and technical cooperation in population.  A note by the Secretariat contains the draft programme of work of the Division for the biennium 2002-2003 (document E/CN.9/2001/6).

In addition, the Commission had before it its provisional agenda and organization of work for the current session (documents E/CN.9/2001/1 and L.1), as well as the provisional agenda for its thirty-fifth session (document E/CN.9/2001/L.2).

Membership

The Commission normally comprises 47 members, who are elected on the basis of equitable geographic distribution and serve a term of four years.  In 2001, the members are:  Algeria, Austria, Bangladesh, Belarus, Belgium, Brazil, Burundi, Cameroon, Chile, China, Croatia, El Salvador, France, Germany, Ghana, Guinea, Haiti, India, Indonesia, Iran, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Kenya, Lithuania, Malaysia, Malawi, Mexico, Niger, Netherlands, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, South Africa, Sweden, Turkey, Uganda, Yemen, Ukraine, United Kingdom and the United States.

The Economic and Social Council, at its resumed organization session for 2000, postponed the election of one member from African States and two members from Latin America and Caribbean States for four-year terms beginning on 1 January 2001.