UN POPULATION DIVISION ISSUES ‘WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS: THE 2000 REVISION’

UN POPULATION DIVISION ISSUES ‘WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS:  THE 2000 REVISION’

NEW YORK, 27 February (DESA) -- World population reached 6.1 billion in mid-2000 and is currently growing at an annual rate of 1.3 per cent, or 77 million people per year, according to World Population Prospects:  the 2000 Revision prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA).  Other highlights:  six countries account for half of this annual growth:  India for 21 per cent; China for 12 per cent; Pakistan for 5 per cent; Nigeria for 4 per cent; Bangladesh for 4 per cent, and Indonesia for 3 per cent.  Also, by 2050, world population is expected to be between 7.9 billion (low variant) and 10.9 billion (high variant), with the medium variant producing

9.3 billion.

The Revision constitutes the sixteenth round of global demographic estimates and projections undertaken by the Population Division since 1950.  These population estimates and projections provide the standard and consistent set of population figures that are used throughout the United Nations system as the basis for activities requiring population information.  The main findings derived from the results of the 2000 Revision are summarized below.

The population of more developed regions, currently 1.2 billion, is anticipated to change little during the next 50 years because fertility levels are expected to remain below replacement level[1].  However, by mid-century the populations of 39 countries are projected to be smaller than today (e.g., Japan and Germany are each 14 per cent smaller; Italy and Hungary each 25 per cent smaller; and the Russian Federation, Georgia and Ukraine between 28 and 40 per cent smaller in each case).

The population of the less developed regions is projected to rise steadily from 4.9 billion in 2000 to 8.2 billion in 2050 (medium variant).  This projection assumes continuing declines in fertility; in the absence of such declines, the population of less developed regions would reach 11.9 billion instead of the projected 8.2 billion.  Particularly rapid growth is expected among the group of 48 countries classified as least developed.  Their population is expected to nearly triple between 2000 and 2050, passing from 658 million to 1.8 billion, despite the fact that their fertility is projected to decline markedly in the future.

The difference between the projected population in 2050 according to the 2000 Revision (9.3 billion) and that projected in the 1998 Revision (8.9 billion) is 413 million people.  Higher future fertility levels projected for the

16 developing countries whose fertility has not yet shown signs of a sustained decline are largely responsible for 59 per cent of that difference.  The somewhat higher recent fertility estimated in the 2000 Revision for several populous countries (e.g., Bangladesh, India and Nigeria) accounts for a further 32 per cent of that difference.

For 1995-2000, life expectancy at birth in the more developed regions is estimated to be 75 years.  In less developed regions, life expectancy was nearly 12 years lower, at 63 years.  By 2050, the less developed regions are expected to attain a life expectancy of 75 years, whereas in the more developed regions the projected level is 82 years, implying that the gap between the two groups may narrow.

The 2000 Revision indicates a worsening of the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in terms of increased morbidity, mortality and population loss.  During the next five years, for example, the number of excess deaths because of AIDS among the   45 most affected countries (up from the 34 considered in the 1998 Revision) is estimated at 15.5 million.  Despite the devastating impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, the populations of the most affected countries are expected to be larger by mid-century than today.  For the nine most affected countries in Africa (with HIV prevalence at or above 14 per cent), the population is projected to increase from 115 million in 2000 to 196 million in 2050.  Even in Botswana, where HIV prevalence is 36 per cent, or in Swaziland and Zimbabwe, where it is above 25 per cent, the population is projected to increase significantly between 2000 and 2050: by 37 per cent in Botswana, 148 per cent in Swaziland and 86 per cent in Zimbabwe. Only in South Africa, whose fertility is lower than that of Botswana or Zimbabwe, does the growth rate of the population become negative during 2010-2025.

Although the probability of being infected by HIV is assumed to decline significantly in the future (particularly after 2015), the long-term impact of the epidemic remains dire.  For the 45 most affected countries, the expectation of life at birth has already been reduced by nearly three years.  By 2015, expectation of life is projected to stand at 60 years, five years lower than it would have been in the absence of HIV/AIDS.

Globally, the number of older persons (60 years or over) will nearly triple, increasing from 606 million today to nearly 2 billion by 2050.  The increase in the number of the oldest-old (80 years or over) is expected to be even more marked, passing from 69 million in 2000 to 379 million in 2050, more than a fivefold increase.

In more developed regions, the population aged 60 or over currently constitutes about 20 per cent of the population; by 2050, it will account for 33 per cent of the population.  The elderly population has already surpassed the child population (persons aged 0-14) and by 2050, there will be two elderly persons for every

child.  In the less developed regions, the proportion of the population aged 60 or over will rise from 8 per cent in 2000 to close to 20 per cent in 2050.

International migration is projected to remain high during the twenty-first century.  The more developed regions are expected to remain net receivers of international migrants, with an average gain of about 2 million per year over the next 50 years.  Because of low fertility, this migration has a significant impact on population growth in the more developed regions.  Without migration, the population of more developed regions as a whole would start declining in

2003 rather than in 2025, and by 2050 it would be 126 million less than the

1.18 billion projected under the assumption of continued migration.

A more detailed summary of the key findings of the 2000 Revisionis available as World Population Prospects:  The 2000 Revision, Highlights(United Nations, ESA/P/WP.165, February 2001).  This document will be posted on the Population Division’s Web site at www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm.  The full results of the 2000 Revision will be issued in a series of three volumes that are under preparation.   For further information on the 2000 Revision, please contact Joseph Chamie, Director, Population Division, New York, NY 10017, USA, 

(tel: (212) 963-3179, fax: (212) 963-2147, e-mail population@un.org).

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[1] Replacement-level fertility is the level necessary to ensure that the population replaces itself over the long run. For most populations, replacement is ensured with a fertility of 2.1 children per woman.