PRESS BRIEFING BY UN POPULATION DIVISION DIRECTOR ON WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS REPORT

PRESS BRIEFING BY UN POPULATION DIVISION DIRECTOR

ON WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS REPORT

The world would be about 50 per cent larger by mid-century as well as substantially older, more ethnically and culturally diverse, and more urbanized, with megacities concentrated in the developing countries, Joseph Chamie, Director of the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, told correspondents this morning.

At a Headquarters press briefing on the launch today of a United Nations report titled World Population Prospects:  the 2000 Revision, Mr. Chamie explained that world population would continue to grow rapidly for the next five decades, rising from 6.1 billion today to a median 9.3 billion in 2050.  International migration was expected to remain high in the twenty-first century and the significant increase in migrant numbers would have a major impact on the growth rates of the more developed regions, where fertility was low.

The Director said that six countries accounted for half the 77 million people joining the world annually:  India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and Indonesia.  India's 21 per cent population growth rate alone was equal to the combined growth of the next three largest contributors -- China (12 per cent), Pakistan (5 per cent) and Nigeria (4 per cent).  Bangladesh and Indonesia had rates of 4 per cent and 3 per cent respectively.

Emphasizing the great diversity of population growth and of the components of growth among countries, he said some continued to grow slowly and even to decline, while others grew relatively rapidly.  Fertility was the key basic factor explaining the differences between countries growing rapidly and those growing slowly.  The average number of children a woman had, explained the rapidly growing populations, like that of Niger, in comparison to declining populations in Japan, Italy and Russia.  Another factor was lifestyle differences -- people choosing to have smaller families, to postpone having children, or not to have them at all.

He said that despite the worsening impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in terms of morbidity, mortality and population loss, Africa's population would be larger by mid-century, rising from 794 million today to a projected median of

2 billion in 2050.  Also, population ageing was continuing globally.  By

2050, the number of persons 60 years or older was expected to triple and those above 80 would increase five-fold.  Coming years would see a major shift in the ratio of the working-age population to retirees in both developed and developing countries.

A correspondent asked what impact population growth in the largest Asian countries would have on the world as a whole.

Mr. Chamie replied that it would have an enormous economic impact in terms of markets, consumers, producers and demand.  It would also create enormous challenges for governments to provide basic services, employment and housing, as well as enormous pressures on the environment.

Asked by another journalist which developed countries were shrinking, Mr. Chamie noted that grouping countries often masked the diversity occurring within those groups.  While the population of the United States would approach an estimated 400 million people by mid-century, those of Italy, Spain, Germany and Japan were expected to decline.

Besides fertility, migration would be a major factor in the population growth of the United States, with a million migrants entering the country annually.  On the other hand, if low fertility continued in Europe and Japan, populations would continue to decline because deaths outstripped births.

Noting that Japan had the highest median age in the world, the Director said that as chronic ailments afflicted more people, the thinking on health care, social care, pensions and services for the elderly in Japan would have to be reconfigured.

Mr. Chamie told another journalist that the United States was growing for two reasons:  a relatively higher fertility rate, and its annual absorption of about half of all international migrants.  It appeared there would be no change in immigration policy and there may even be slightly higher numbers entering the country in the future.

Pointing out that the current United States population was about

93 million less than that of the European Union, he said that because of their different demographic paths, the United States would overtake the European Union by 2050 and have a population of about 55 million more than the current population of the European Union.

Asked about the impact of HIV/AIDS in the next 50 years, Mr. Chamie stressed the enormous impact of the projected 300 million deaths due to AIDS.  There would be drops in life expectancy, very high morbidity and mortality, and population loss.  South Africa would have a negative growth rate from about

2010 to 2025.

Those factors would have enormous implications for societies in terms of economic productivity, human tragedies and orphans, he said.  A "mortality avalanche" would cause about 15.5 million AIDS deaths in 45 countries included in projections.

Regarding the situation in Eastern Europe and countries of the former Soviet Union, he told another correspondent that those countries were experiencing the most rapid population decline -- in excess of 28 per cent and almost 40 per cent for Ukraine and Estonia.  That situation was due to low fertility, rapid ageing and relatively slower improvements in mortality in comparison with Western Europe, North America and Japan.

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