PRESS CONFERENCE ON EL NINO STUDY

Press Briefing

PRESS CONFERENCE ON EL NINO STUDY

El Ni¤o's inevitable return in the next few years could again mean widespread death and destruction if advancements in forecasting and preparation were not made, Klaus Topfer, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) told correspondents at a Headquarters press briefing this afternoon that launched an inter-organizational study on the dangerous weather phenomenon and efforts to mitigate its effects, entitled "Lessons from the 1997-98 El Nino: Once Burned, Twice Shy?"

"This is a very, very important topic to work on now, not just when the situation is upon us," said Mr. Topfer. The last El Nino caused thousands of deaths and over $90 billion in damage worldwide, with the heaviest impact on the poor in developing countries. It would probably reoccur with greater frequency in the near future, because of climate change, approximately every two to seven years. The study, he said, consisted of very concrete research meant to lead to better monitoring and prediction of those occurrences, along with measures to minimize their impact. It provided the tools to single out regions for specific kinds of planning and construction.

The study was funded by the United Nations Foundation and undertaken with the collaboration of four United Nations organizations -- UNEP, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), United Nations University (UNU) and the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction -- together with the United States- based National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). At the briefing, Alex Alusa, the UNEP Project Task Manager, introduced speakers from those organizations.

Michael Glantz, a senior scientist at NCAR, said that the summary of the study which was being launched was just the tip of the iceberg. The full study, to be released by the end of the year, contained the results of the individual studies of the 16 worst-affected countries around the world. Many of the country findings overlapped and it was possible to develop strategies applicable to groups of situations. The time to do that was now.

Godwin Obasi, Secretary-General of the WMO agreed that awareness of El Nino was high, because of the worldwide nature of the disasters that were related to it during 1997 and 1998 -- forest fires in South East Asia and in Central America, from North-east Brazil to Mexico, due to extreme drought. There had also been unprecedented flooding, not just in Peru and Ecuador, but also in large portions of East Africa. When the 1982-1983 El Nino occurred, the world thought that it was the worst ever, though it caused just a fraction of the damage of the latest one. But, it sparked off scientific activity that led to breakthroughs in meteorological monitoring, including the establishment of a monitoring network in the Pacific Ocean.

With the magnitude of destruction and the wide awareness of the latest occurrence -- the "El Nino of the Century" -- it was imperative to do everything possible to minimize the impact on vulnerable populations, said Mr. Obasi. The international community must, he said, make sure that there was global infrastructure in place to predict weather anomalies. The key first step was to enhance the monitoring network in the Pacific Ocean and to develop other networks in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans.

Zafar Adeel, Programme Officer at the UNU, said that the study found that there was a lack of capacity in the countries affected to monitor, predict, and minimize the impact of El Nino and related events. So, the UNU had capacity-building at the top of its priorities, both in terms of technical facilities and human resources. Together with the agencies involved in the studies, the UNU was developing an initiative to educate educators on diverse aspects of climate- related problems: from the scientific to the sociological to the ethical issues involved. Such capacity-building should be done regionally, as well as nationally.

A correspondent asked about an environmental research centre that had been proposed for Ecuador to study the El Nino phenomenon and its effects. Professor Obasi replied that a project document had been created for the centre and donors were now being sought.

Another correspondent asked for a description of the meteorological monitoring network in the Pacific Ocean, and an outline of its funding sources. Voluntary contributions were made by many countries including the United States, Japan, and Australia, said Mr. Obasi. It was maintained in cooperation with the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the WMO, and other organizations. It included anchored buoys and drifting buoys.

There were pilot projects right now in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans which were not, however, as advanced as those in the Pacific. The monitoring network in the Pacific was developed first, because it was most directly relevant to El Ni¤o. The total cost for maintaining the current network was around $100 million per year. Doubling that expenditure could create a highly effective forecasting network. That cost was minimal compared to the cost of El Ni¤o's potential devastation.

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