PRESS BRIEFING BY POPULATION DIVISION DIRECTOR

Press Briefing

PRESS BRIEFING BY POPULATION DIVISION DIRECTOR

The populations of Japan and a number of European countries were getting smaller and older, Joseph Chamie, Director of the Population Division of the United Nations, said today at a Headquarters press briefing.

Reviewing the work of an expert group meeting on “Policy Responses to Population Aging and Decline”, being held at Headquarters from 16 to 18 October, he said the meeting had considered the demographic prospects for those countries and regions during the next half century, and identified the consequences of ageing and population decline. They also considered various policy options based on the causes of the expected changes, such as migration and fertility, and the consequences of changes in the retirement age and modification of the pension system. The meeting also aimed to stimulate discussion on the issues and identify future priorities. Participants looked at eight countries: France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, United Kingdom and the United States, as well as the two regions.

Using Italy as an example, he said that the country’s current population of 57 million was projected to decline to 41 million in 50 years. During that time, the percentage of the population over 65 would rise from 18 per cent to 35 per cent. Similar rates were anticipated for Spain.

Ron Lesthaeghe, Professor of Demography at the Free University of Brussels and a participant in the expert group meeting, said that when the “baby boomers” reached retirement age, accompanied by a shrinking labour force, it would have a major impact on the economy and social welfare system. Pointing to a decrease in fertility rates as a major determinant, he said that the problem was most serious in Spain, Italy and Germany. Rates of 1 to 1.2 children per couple were required to replace a generation. Women in Western Europe waited longer to have children and, while Scandinavians managed to catch up despite a late start, others did not. Spanish, Italian and German women made little correction in the fertility rates at later ages.

Immigration had to be considered as a major component in reckoning population rates, he said. In the 1980s, Europe thought of itself as a fortress. The only gate open was to families of resident immigrants. Ethnic minorities took advantage of that opening during the 1980s and 1990s. After 1985, the numbers of asylum seekers and economic refugees rose dramatically. Spain, Italy and Germany became major immigration countries. In 1995, the need for immigrants with medium and high level skills became apparent. Public reaction to increased immigration had been divided, with business interests supporting a greater influx of highly skilled immigrants. The duality of opinion plays a part in European politics today.

Karen Dunnel, Director of the Socio-economic Statistics and Analysis Group of the National Statistics Office in London, said the United Kingdom did not have a problem with low fertility rates, but, like the other countries, the

Population Press Briefing - 2 - 18 October 2000

proportion of the population over 75 would double in 50 years. The levels of health, however, were not getting better as life expectancy increased. More older people were spending more of their lives in ill health, which had implications for the funding and resourcing of care services, health and social care, and pensions. Better planning was needed to meet the increased needs of the elderly.

Ms. Dunnel, whose office analyses demography, the health situation and the labour market, said that as the number of people working decreased, there were shortages of people to work in the national health services, the schools and the social services. While the skill and qualification levels of young people had improved, she anticipated that there would continue to be shortages in those areas. That problem was being addressed by United Kingdom public services and there were many schemes to increase the public’s flexibility towards later retirements and recruitment programmes in other countries. There was also a movement to increase lifelong education and training in the work force. Over the last 20 years, there had been a decrease in the retirement age. The challenge now was to turn people around and keep them in the workforce. There was also a move to equalize State pensions. Currently, women received their pensions at age 60, while men were eligible at 65. In 2011, women would have to be 65 to collect State pensions.

Continuing, she said it was difficult to encourage an increase in fertility, because there was more child poverty in the United Kingdom than in many other European countries. There were also a number of health and social issues concerning single parents and teenage parents and the disadvantages for their children. Raising the socio-economic standard of children was a policy drive in the United Kingdom. Also, like the United States, the United Kingdom was a popular place for immigrants. In past years, immigration had been restricted to a small work permit system and allowing in family members. That policy was under review, because of acknowledged skill gaps and because the situation in Europe and the rest of the world had led to large increases in immigration.

In response to a question, Mr. Chamie said there had been a distinct change in the willingness of European countries to consider changing their immigration policies in terms of economics and demographics. Moreover, they were considering concrete policy options that could be done very soon.

A correspondent, noting that the United States had a less severe problem than Europe, asked if there was anything that could be learned there. Mr. Lesthoeghe replied that the fertility rate in the United States had not gone down for a number of reasons. There was a continuous influx of immigrants. White Americans had postponed having children, but others have not. The main reason for the high birth rate was teenage fertility, which was higher in the United States than in Europe. If teenage fertility was subtracted from the total, the birth rate would be 1.85 to 1.9. Because the workforce was not declining, the ratio of workers to retirees was different from that in Europe.

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