FAO/WFP JOINT MISSION REPORT FORECASTS FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN HARVEST AREA FOR 2000

Press Release
SAG/80
WFP/1054

FAO/WFP JOINT MISSION REPORT FORECASTS FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN HARVEST AREA FOR 2000

ROME, 10 August (FAO/WFP) -- The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) will release a joint report on the Food Supply Situation in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia on the Internet at 1300 CET (Rome/Paris time) today. The report can be accessed at the following URL: .

The report is based on the evaluation of a joint FAO/WFP Food Supply Assessment Mission that visited The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia last month.

Following are excerpts from the joint report:

The Joint Mission to the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia estimates that the wheat area for harvest in Serbia and Montenegro for 2000 has fallen to 581,000 hectares, from 619,000 in 1999 and 800,000 in 1991. The Mission estimates the 2000 wheat harvest at between 1.66 million tons (low scenario) to 1.8 million tons (best case). The lower forecast is based on the Mission's estimate of the harvested area, at 34 per cent below the 10-year average and 82 per cent of the 1999 harvest. The best-case scenario is based on the official estimate of the area for harvest, 650,000 hectares and has output 27 per cent below average and 10 per cent less than in 1999.

The yield potential of spring crops such as maize, sugar beet and soya has also been affected by the high temperatures and water shortages since April, and production is expected to be less than in 1999. However, the outcome will depend crucially on rainfall in July/August. Output of fodder crops is sharply less and reduced availability of animal feed could lead to further sharp reductions in animal numbers.

Domestic food availability is also determined by the volumes of agri-food exports necessary to secure essential import requirements, particularly oil, gas and medicines. The country needs to import 70 per cent of its fuel requirements and traditionally has financed them by industrial and agricultural exports. With falling gross domestic product (GDP), industry in ruins, and the share of agriculture in GDP increasing, agri-food exports accounted for 22 per cent of exports by value in 1999. Exports of agricultural products, including maize and a small amount of wheat are continuing this year but were below target up to May. Targets for 2001 will be drawn up once the harvests have been completed.

- 2 - Press Release SAG/80 WFP/1054 10 August 2000

The Government regulates the domestic market for basic foodstuffs, particularly that of wheat and flour, and sets subsidised controlled prices for bread, milk, sugar, vegetable oil and fresh meat. The state-regulated prices are low and did not cover the cost of production of wheat in 1999 when input prices soared because of severe shortages.

The outlook for the coming year is for food supply to tighten considerably and prices to rise further, jeopardizing the food security of the low-income population. The availability of food at the low controlled prices, already inadequate, is decreasing while an increasing amount of food is being channelled to the more loosely regulated, higher priced market. At the same time, real salaries and wages are decreasing. Food already accounts for a significant proportion of the household budgets of the population with low incomes.

The WFP is currently targeting about 700,000 refugees and socially vulnerable people. In addition the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) assists 200,000 (internally displaced persons) IDPs with an individual food ration and 100,000 beneficiaries (social cases) through a hot meal under their soup kitchen programme.

For more information, please contact: John Riddle, FAO Media Relations Telephone: (39) 06 57053259, E-mail: ; or Francis Mwanza, WFP Information Office, Telephone: (39) 06 6513-2623, E-mail: .

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