PRESS BRIEFING BY UNITED NATIONS POPULATION DIVISION

Press Briefing

PRESS BRIEFING BY UNITED NATIONS POPULATION DIVISION

Launching the report, “Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations?”, Joseph Chamie, Director of the Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, discussed the viability of international migration as a solution to population decline and population ageing in developed countries, at a Headquarters press briefing this morning.

Replacement migration, Mr. Chamie said, refers to the international migration that a country would need to prevent population decline and population ageing resulting from low fertility and mortality rates.

While the study did not make recommendations or provide a “demographic recipe” for countries to follow, it did, however, look at the determinants and consequences of population change, he said. The report also indicated likely future demographic trends and options and analysed the interplay between population variables, such as fertility, mortality and migration, and development issues.

The study was prompted by the findings of a publication issued by the Population Division last year, “World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision”, which uncovered the two critical trends in world demographics -- population decline and population ageing, Mr. Chamie added. The report focused on eight low fertility countries -- France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, United Kingdom and the United States. It also looked at two regions, namely, Europe and the European Union.

The report concluded that while replacement migration could be a solution for declines in population size and working age, it could not be a realistic solution for population ageing, Mr. Chamie said. “The numbers involved are simply too large”, he said.

Mr. Chamie outlined the major findings of the report, including the fact that in the next 50 years the populations of most developed countries would become smaller and older as a result of low fertility and increased longevity, he continued. Italy, for example, was expected to lose 28 per cent of its population size.

The report also found that population decline was inevitable in the absence of replacement migration, Mr. Chamie said. Fertility rebound was not anticipated in the countries studied in the report. The populations of Europe and Japan would almost certainly decline in the coming decades. Even if fertility rates did rebound, they would not have an impact working-age populations (15-64 years) for at least 20 or 25 years.

Some immigration was needed to prevent population decline in all cases, he said. For the European Union, the continuation of immigration levels from the 1990s would be roughly sufficient to offset the declines in population size. The number of immigrants needed to prevent the decline of the total population was considerably larger than those envisioned by United Nations projections, he said. The numbers needed to offset declines in working-age populations would be much larger than the numbers needed to offset population decline, because migrants brought their families and dependents with them.

Relative to their population size, Italy and Germany would need the largest number of migrants to maintain their working-age populations, Mr. Chamie said. Italy would require 6,500 migrants per million inhabitants, while Germany would require 6,000. In contrast, the United States would require the smallest number of migrants -– 1,300 migrants per million inhabitants -- to maintain the size of its working-age population.

In the absence of immigration, the ratio of the working-age population to the retired population (65 years and above) would change dramatically, Mr. Chamie said. In most countries, hat ratio would be cut in half. Today, for each person of retirement age, there were four to five workers. In 50 years, there would be two workers for every retired person.

If governments did not pursue replacement migration as a solution to population decline and ageing, they would have to pursue other options, Mr. Chamie said. The challenges from a declining population required an objective, comprehensive, thorough reassessment of many of the existing economic, social and political policies. One option would be to increase the retirement age to 75 years. Another option would be to reassess the amount of contributions from workers and employers to support retirement and health-care benefits for the increasing elderly population.

If immigration rates continued at the same rate, which countries would have to increase international immigration? a correspondent asked. Mr. Chamie said that, except for the United States, all the European countries showed population declines with the projected number of migrants coming into their countries. Italy would face a 28 per cent decline in population and the Russian Federation would face a decline of 18 per cent. Bulgaria’s population would decline by almost one third. Japan, with virtually no international immigration, would face a decline of 18 per cent. The population of the United Kingdom would decline by 5 per cent, whereas the population of France would stay almost the same.

A correspondent asked if the expense of supporting an immigrant population would outweigh the expense of maintaining a retirement age population. Mr. Chamie said that the report did not go into trade-offs. While international migrants would incur some costs, such as education and health care, studies showed a net gain from workers as opposed to a net loss. France, the United Kingdom and the United States had an advantage, in that they could more easily find native-speaking workers. Countries such as Japan, Sweden and Finland would have greater difficulty in finding workers, since they had to draw from a much smaller pool of workers, who spoke those languages. Generally, however, migrants represented a net contribution, rather than a net drain.

In response to a question on the economic impact of declining populations and ageing on the countries mentioned in the report, Mr. Chamie said that economies, in terms of working-age populations, would see a dramatic change in sizes. Pronouncements from political leaders indicated that there already was tremendous pressure for qualified, skilled labourers. As populations became older, increased need for services to care for ageing populations would also provide a drain on economies. Was there an explanation for Japan’s zero per cent migration policy? a correspondent asked. Mr. Chamie said that it was basically Japan’s policy not to have importation of immigrants. There had been informal mechanisms to deal with shrinking and ageing populations in that country, such as the introduction of “trainees” –- people who would stay in Japan for only a short time. Japan was more interested in increasing fertility rates and productivity. Emphasizing productivity, however, put pressure on Japanese women to have fewer children. That created a paradox for Japanese female workers. Japan was also facing enormous difficulties with ageing populations and was thinking of raising the retirement age.

In light of high unemployment rates and overpopulation in some countries, was a decreasing workforce inherently a bad thing? a correspondent asked. The report did not make judgements about what was good or bad, Mr. Chamie said. The report did, however, point out likely trends and possible consequences. Governments would have to decide what was a favourable or unfavourable trend. There was no experience in the modern era for countries losing 25 or 30 per cent of their populations. There was also no example to see what would happen if populations aged dramatically without any change in social or economic policies. Without adjustments, serious dislocations in economies and social policies were likely, he said. Japan and the European Union already faced serious questions on how to anticipate the large increase in the elderly population. Elderly populations required a great deal more in terms of health care than did young populations.

Of all the countries cited in the report, Italy and Japan had the lowest fertility rates, he added. Spain, although not included in the study, also had a very low fertility rate. Lower fertility rates meant less demand for doctors, nurses, day-care workers and teachers. The sooner governments addressed issues and challenges, the easier it would be to find solutions.

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