COMMISSION ON POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT OPENS THIRTY-SECOND SESSION
Press Release
POP/711
COMMISSION ON POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT OPENS THIRTY-SECOND SESSION
19990322The Director of the Population Division told the Commission on Population and Development this morning that his projections indicated the world's population would increase by 3 billion people in the next 50 years, a projection he hoped would be proven wrong.
Joseph Chamie, speaking as the Commission opened its thirty-second session, said that the increase would be concentrated in the currently less developed regions. Just five countries -- India, China, Pakistan, Indonesia and Nigeria -- now accounted for nearly 50 per cent of the annual growth of the world's population. In the same 50-year period, the population of the more developed regions would remain essentially unchanged -- 1.2 billion -- while the population of the less developed regions was expected to grow from 4.8 billion to 7.8 billion.
The Commission's annual meeting this year is a prelude to its meeting of 24-31 March as preparatory committee for the special session of the General Assembly for the review and appraisal of the implementation of the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (Cairo, 1994), to be convened from 30 June to 2 July.
Also addressing the Commission this morning, the Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, Nitin Desai, said that global population data had not fully captured the diversity of population trends. For example, it had not reflected the toll that HIV/AIDS had taken on many countries, or accounted for the consequences of political and civil conflicts throughout the world. Many changes had occurred in the last quarter century, and no one conference alone could provide a complete picture. The key to the current session was to look at the outcomes of the major conferences together, in order to accurately assess recent progress.
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) had emphasized broad cooperation with other United Nations bodies, its Executive Director, Dr. Nafis Sadik, told the Commission. In implementing the Programme of Action, the UNFPA had formed
Population Commission - 1a - Press Release POP/711 1st Meeting (AM) 22 March 199
various partnerships, with the primary focus on reproductive health. Among its priorities were: combating the spread of HIV infections, protecting the reproductive health of adolescents, and improving reproductive health services for refugees and women.
Also this morning, the Commission heard the introduction of the report of the Secretary-General and elected Robert Louis Cliquet (Belgium) as Chairman, and Gabriella Vokovich (Hungary) as Vice-Chairman. Further consultations were needed to complete the Bureau.
Statements were made also made by the representatives of Germany, on behalf of the European Union, United States, Bangladesh, Thailand, Russian Federation, and China.
The Commission will meet again at 3 p.m. today to consider follow-up actions to the recommendations of the International Conference on Population and Development.
Commission Work Programme
The Commission on Population and Development met this morning to begin its general debate and review follow-up actions to the recommendations of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development held in Cairo. (For background, see Press Release POP/709 issued 18 March.)
Statements
NITIN DESAI, Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, said that, 25 years ago the world population had been 4 billion. Sometime in October of the current year, the world would pass the 6 billion mark. Many other changes had occurred in the last quarter century. There had been changes in life expectancy and population dynamics and significantly more countries had encountered demographic transitions. The most important thing was that global population numbers had not fully captured the diversity of population trends. For example, it did not reflect the toll that HIV/AIDS had taken on many countries, nor did it account for the consequences of political and civil conflicts throughout the world.
Over the past few years there had been a growing interest in a more coordinated follow-up to all the United Nations conferences, he said. There were certainly themes that cut across those conferences, such as issues relating to the availability of financial resources, children, women and education. For that reason, it was necessary that the work of the United Nations at all levels be better coordinated.
A key actor in the coordination process was the Economic and Social Council, he said. Over the past few years, the Council had addressed coordinated follow-up to the major conferences. It had looked at 12 cross- cutting issues that were common to the conferences and had organized its work around those themes. One major theme was coordination of operational work on poverty eradication and the Council looked at what different conferences had said on that issue. Linking the work of each functional body with others was a priority in that regard.
The use of indicators was also a focus of the Council, he added. On 26 March there would be a meeting between the bureaus of the Council and the Commission on Population and Development to allow each body to convey its needs and concerns. The chairpersons of the Commission on Social Development and the Commission on the Status of Women would be addressing the Commission on Population and Development during its session.
The key for the Commission's work at this session was to look at the outcomes of the major conferences together, he said. That was important if the Commission was to see what had been done in the 1990s on economic and social issues, as none of the conferences alone provided a complete picture of the world's concerns. Only through such a coordinated effort could the world
Population Commission - 3 - Press Release POP/711 1st Meeting (AM) 22 March 1999
determine the responsibilities of public policy at the international and national levels.
Dr. NAFIS SADIK, Executive Director of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), said that following the 1995 International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo, the Commission had taken on a new and revitalized role. Its membership had increased from 20 to 47, and its responsibilities now included assisting the Economic and Social Council in monitoring implementation of the Programme of Action of the Cairo Conference. A welcome innovation was the decision to establish themes for each session. The theme for the thirty-second session was population growth, structure and distribution.
In line with the proposed reforms of the Secretary-General, the commissions of the Economic and Social Council had taken an active role in monitoring the outcomes of international conferences, she said. The UNFPA had emphasized broad cooperation with the functional commissions and other United Nations coordinating bodies. In implementing the Programme of Action, it had also looked for partnership with other United Nations programmes, parliamentarians, non-governmental organizations, the private sector and other members of civil society. Last year, many of those partners joined the UNFPA in a series of round-table meetings and technical symposiums.
One of those events was the Technical Symposium on International Migration, she continued. The symposium contributed to a better understanding of the migration process and provided new insights into the complex area of international migration and development. In planning that event, the UNFPA was especially grateful for the Commission's guidance. Further details on the outcome of that session would emerge during the current session. Those and other meetings had set the stage for the five-year review of progress towards implementing the goals of the Programme of Action. Last month at the international forum at The Hague held to review implementation of the Programme of Action, 177 countries had exchanged views, reported progress and discussed obstacles.
She said that those discussions had confirmed the commitment of countries to reach the goals of the Programme of Action, which were reinforced by the UNFPA's operational review. Concerning operational matters, reproductive health had remained the primary focus of the UNFPA's programme, accounting for more than 60 per cent of total programme allocations. A major concern was to develop effective programmes, promoting reproductive and sexual health within a human rights framework.
In that area, she cited the priorities, which included: combating the spread of HIV infections; encouraging programmes to protect reproductive health of adolescents; reducing maternal mortality; improving reproductive health services for refugees and women displaced by civil conflict; and minimizing recourse to abortion by making safe, effective, appropriate family
Population Commission - 4 - Press Release POP/711 1st Meeting (AM) 22 March 1999
planning universally available. Gender concerns were a cross-cutting dimension of all UNFPA-supported programming. To that end, the UNFPA had emphasized gender issues in all of its work.
She said that in order to help meet the need for regular and timely data, the UNFPA was providing, among other things, extensive support for the year 2000 round of censuses. More attention and resources were needed, however, to improve the information by which progress towards Cairo Conference goals could be measured. That applied especially to the poorest nations and countries with economies in transition, which had not yet developed effective systems for collecting, analysing and disseminating relevant data.
In seeking the maximum effect in allocation of resources, donors should not overlook the need to support the everyday essential activities, such as collecting basic data and establishing systems to monitor programme effectiveness, she said. There was also a need for additional research on emerging issues, such as social policy in ageing societies, the social effects of economic policy, and migration. In order for the United Nations system to lead the international discussion, research must be stimulated and widely discussed as a basis for policy.
JOSEPH CHAMIE, Director of the Population Division, Department for Economic and Social Affairs, said that throughout the Commission's 53 years -- which had been unprecedented demographically in the history of humanity -- it had been the primary international forum for building consensus on global population and development issues.
The Commission was a body where population issues of fundamental concern for individuals, families, communities and nations might be debated objectively, comprehensively and with respect to differing perspectives, he said. The present session was particularly important. Not only would the Commission conduct its regular work, but it would also serve in open-ended session as the preparatory committee for the special session of the General Assembly in June.
He said that according to his most recent projections, the world population would reach the 6 billion by October of the current year. Some 40 years ago, the Population Division had projected a population for the year 2000 of slightly more than 6 billion, according to the medium variant. In the aftermath of the Second World War, when the world population was slightly more than 2 billion, few believed that in less than 50 years the world population would reach 6 billion; a tripling of the world's population in a 50-year period seemed impossible. There were a handful of international demographers, however, who ventured to think otherwise. Fifty years from now, the Division projected a much larger world population of 9 billion inhabitants. He hoped that would prove wrong.
Population Commission - 5 - Press Release POP/711 1st Meeting (AM) 22 March 1999
The world population was growing by 78 million people per year. India had the largest share of that growth at 21 per cent, or about 16 million people. India was followed by China, with a 15 per cent contribution, or 11 million people. The top five countries -- India, China, Pakistan, Indonesia and Nigeria -- accounted for nearly 50 per cent of the annual growth of the world's population. In the coming 50 years, the projected increase of 3 billion people would be taking place in the currently less developed regions. The population of the more developed regions would remain essentially unchanged at 1.2 billion, while the population of the less developed regions was expected to grow from 4.8 billion to 7.8 billion by 2050.
India alone would grow by 50 per cent over the next five decades, from 1 billion to 1.53 billion, he said. In 2050, India would have the largest population in the world. Even more rapidly, Nigeria and Pakistan would both grow by roughly 120 per cent in the next half century -- from 156 million to 345 million for Pakistan and from 112 million to 244 million for Nigeria.
He noted that 50 years ago couples in developing countries were having an average of six children and today the average was slightly less than three. Again, he said, few in the 1950s were bold enough to declare that fertility would drop so rapidly. For example, in 1950 China's fertility rate was among the highest in the world, at approximately 6.2 children per couple. Now the fertility of China was well below replacement level, at 1.8 children per couple. Other examples of rapid fertility declines included Viet Nam, Brazil and Kenya.
He said the fertility transition in the more developed regions had gone from an average of approximately 3 children per couple in the early 1950s to 1.5 children per couple today, well below replacement levels. The challenge for developed countries, and some developing countries, was to address the consequences of below-replacement fertility. The populations of 30 countries were expected to decline, including Germany and Japan, and very low fertility levels led not only to population decline, but also to rapid population ageing. Those changes in size and structure had significant social, economic and political consequences for those countries and regions. Those consequences needed to be addressed today, not tomorrow.
For more than a decade now, the Population Division had also examined the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS, he said. The recent 1998 projections showed a devastating toll from the AIDS epidemic with respect to mortality and population loss. In the 29 hardest hit African countries, life expectancy at birth was currently estimated at 47 years, seven years less than what could be expected in the absence of AIDS. Estimates of the prevalence of HIV were high. In some countries, as much as one fourth of the adult population was HIV positive. By 2015, the combined population of those 29 countries would be approximately 60 million less than it would have been in the absence of AIDS. He hoped the Division had "overestimated the likely impact of AIDS".
Population Commission - 6 - Press Release POP/711 1st Meeting (AM) 22 March 1999
Continuing, he said that considerable uncertainty existed regarding the pattern of AIDS in China and India. At the end of 1997, it was estimated that the numbers of HIV positive cases were approximately 400,000 in China and 4 million in India. Would the epidemic in those two countries follow the "terrible path" of the 29 hardest hit African countries? he asked. Again, he hoped it would not.
Life expectancy for the world as a whole was expected to increase by some 10 years over the next half century, from 66 years to 76 years, he continued. Some years ago, the delegate of France urged the Commission to consider the possibility that human longevity could reach as high as 120 or even 150 years, imagining that future advances in technology, the health and medical sciences, and bio-engineering would extend life expectancy at birth to nearly double its current level. His own projections, however, had not been as bold.
He recalled that at a recent Model United Nations a high school student had not known the identity of Dr. Jonas Salk and had no knowledge of polio. With sufficient progress, perhaps in the not too distant future, young students would ask, "What is AIDS?" "What is malaria?" "What is tuberculosis?" or, "What is Parkinsons's or Alzheimer's disease?" While scientists generally strove for accurate extrapolations, he hoped his populations projections were wrong. In the year 2050, he hoped to be able to look back at his current projections and tell the Commission he had been wrong, and that things had turned out much better than he or his colleagues had projected.
In that regard, he said the Commission could contribute to United Nations efforts at making the world in 2050 a much better place. It had a vital role to play as the ground-breaking first tier for the follow-up to the Cairo Conference Programme of Action.
Introduction of Reports
RAJ KARIM (Malaysia), Chairperson of the thirty-first session of the Commission, made a statement on the inter-sessional bureau meeting held in Kuala Lumpur on 28 and 29 September 1998. She said the session discussed the organization of work and the agenda for the current session of the Commission. It also reviewed the work of the functional commissions that had the responsibility of follow-up to major United Nations conferences, and discussed the themes for coming sessions of the Commission. It decided that the thirty- third session of the Commission should be on population gender and development, the thirty-fourth would be on social and economic differentials and the thirty-fifth on population and the environment. (The report on the inter-sessional meeting is contained in document E/CN.9/1999/CRP.2.)
LARRY HELIGMAN, Assistant Director of the Population Division, introduced the report of the Secretary-General on world population monitoring, 1999: population growth structure and distribution (document E/CN.9/1999/2).
Population Commission - 7 - Press Release POP/711 1st Meeting (AM) 22 March 1999
He said the report reviewed world changes in population size and growth, as well as mortality, fertility and migration. It also expressed concerns about population and development. Understanding demographic changes was based on timely and accurate data and the report stressed that more resources for data collection and analysis was needed. It also focused on the concentration of populations in urban centres.
CATHERINE PIERCE, Deputy Director of the Technical and Policy Division of the UNFPA, introduced the report of the Technical Symposium on International Migration and Development (document E/CN.9/1999/3). She said that the symposium served as a forum for the discussion of international migration issues in both countries of origin and destination. It focused on fostering orderly migration flows, the economic and social consequences of migration, and the gender and human rights dimensions of migration. Female migration was of particular concern, because women were most vulnerable to harassment and violence. It also discussed the increasing restrictions on migration and suggested that such policies should be re-examined to reflect human rights concerns.
MOHAMMED NIZAMUDDIN, Director of the Technical and Policy Division of the UNFPA, introduced the report of the Secretary-General on the flow of financial resources for assisting in the implementation of the Programme of Action (document E/CN.9/1999/4). He said the report was based on data from a limited number of countries. A majority of financial resources were spent on population programmes by only a few large countries. The Division was making every effort to improve its data collection system and each year it took steps to improve the quality and coverage of data. There was a clear need for greater spending on population-related services in order to meet the goals of the Cairo Conference.
HANIA ZLOTNIK, Chief of the Population Estimates and Projections Section of the Population Division, introduced the report of the Secretary-General on world demographic trends (document E/CN.9/1999/5). She said the future population depended on whether there was high fertility, medium fertility or low fertility. Regardless of the fertility rate, however, migration would be a major factor in population trends. There was a general growth in fertility in the developing world. The pace of growth in Africa, for example, was expected to continue. However, population control efforts in some African countries had been successful. There would be, in general, a reduction of mortality in a majority of countries in the next century. The exceptions to that would be in those countries where there was a high prevalence of HIV/AIDS.
Statements
CHARLOTTE HOEHN (Germany), speaking on behalf of the European Union, said that the present session, as part of the topic-oriented multi-year work programme, would thus contribute substantially to the review process. One
Population Commission - 8 - Press Release POP/711 1st Meeting (AM) 22 March 1999
subject was missing from the report on world population monitoring, namely education. As a major factor of women's empowerment, population change and social and economic development, education should be a focal point of analysis in the preparation of that report next year.
Despite that omission, however, the monitoring report contained a wealth of information on past and present trends of demographic change, she said. It also included the views of government population change, as well as on determinants of fertility and mortality change. In addition, the report highlighted the issue of urbanization, and discussed the socio-economic implications and challenges of population ageing.
In that context, she noted the report's conclusion that, despite prolonged ageing, adjustment to ageing was not smooth. The Union was offering to enter into an exchange of experience on adaptation to ageing with all interested countries. Population ageing and inter-generational solidarity were important issues to be considered in the further appraisal of the progress made in achieving goals of the Programme of Action of the Cairo Conference. The report's focus on population growth, poverty, food provision and the environment was of great relevance to policy makers. That work should be pursued constantly over the next years.
Concerning the future work programme of the Population Division, she noted the decision to focus on gender population and development. The Union reiterated that the next monitoring report should cover the subject of education, as well as issues of male identity and responsible fatherhood. Moreover, a thorough discussion of the issues to be covered in 2002 to 2004 should take place at the next meeting of the Commission, in the context of a wide-ranging review of the mode of operation.
She highlighted the Union's suggestions for the themes of the future work of the Commission, as follows: 2001 -- population and socio-economic differentials within and among countries in order to study inter-linkages between population and development, with special consideration of the poor and the elderly, also considering differentials in the prevalence of HIV/AIDS; 2002 -- population and environment; 2003 -- reproductive rights and reproductive health; 2004 -- the next quinquennial review and appraisal of the progress made in achieving the goals and objectives of the Programme of Action.
She said that, regrettably, there was not sufficient time to go into an in-depth discussion of the Secretary-General's report that summarizes the results of the first quinquennial review and appraisal, which should be one of the major tasks of the Commission. The Union, therefore, proposed that the Commission in 2004 should discuss the next presented review and appraisal, including newly emerging issues. It also hoped that a broader and more reliable set of data and indicators would be available by that time.
Population Commission - 9 - Press Release POP/711 1st Meeting (AM) 22 March 1999
MARGARET POLLACK (United States) said that one of the most straightforward and yet complex problems raised in The Hague symposium on international migration and development was the need for better data on international migration flows. Her country urged all States to increase their efforts to collect national data on migration. There was still a need to learn more about the who, where and why of international migration. There was need for further study of South-South migratory movement and the impact of migration on the development process.
She said there should also be more research on the remittance issue, to provide a better understanding of the economic links between migrant populations and their national economies. Her country was concerned about the impact of migrant remittances on neighbouring economies. Indeed, its policies on immigration were affected by that issue. On the issue of asylum reform, she said it was a fair and necessary step to prevent abuse by those seeking to take advantage of a nation's generosity. Such reforms should not, however, conflict with a State's obligations under international law.
She said the HIV/AIDS pandemic placed an urgent demand on governmental and non-governmental partners for additional resources. New partners must be enlisted in the effort to mobilize resources. Already, private foundations were playing a major and increased role in support of population and reproductive health programmes. Likewise, businesses and civic groups were important potential sources of revenue. Limited existing resources must be stretched. That could be done in a number of ways, including better coordination among donors, and improving the efficiency and effectiveness of programmes.
ANWARUL KARIM CHOWDHURY (Bangladesh) said the issue of migration was emerging as a primary global interest. His country was of the view that orderly migration was beneficial for both the sending and the receiving countries. However, a certain degree of misapprehension seemed to exist in many countries. That resulted from a reluctance to make an in-depth examination of the migration process, which could be mutually beneficial.
It was notable that there had been a great increase over the past decade in female migrant workers, he continued. In most cases the work opportunity had the potential of enhancing their status and contributing to their empowerment. It was a matter of concern, however, that many female migrants were particularly vulnerable to exploitation and harassment in the workplace. Recipient countries should take greater responsibility for their protection. Also, greater attention should be paid to the nature of the work of female migrants, the particular social factors in their environment and risk elements associated with their jobs.
Another area of particular concern for his country was the movement of skilled workers from the developing to the developed countries and the fast- growing economies, he said. Their loss from the sending country, after having
Population Commission - 10 - Press Release POP/711 1st Meeting (AM) 22 March 1999
invested in their education, required study. International collaboration was needed to develop a compensatory mechanism that could prevent the loss of human assets from the investing country. Additional studies were necessary to firmly establish the impact of migration on development. In an era of fast- paced economic globalization, international migration was bound to increase.
The donor community played an important role in financing population activities in the least developing countries, he said. For them, resources should be made available on a concessional basis. All countries should strive to meet the committed target for assistance. Otherwise, the implementation of the process of the Cairo Programme of Action would start to falter. Given its major responsibility for the follow-up and implementation of the Programme of Action at the country level, increased resources should be made available to the UNFPA.
DAMRANG BOONYEAN (Thailand) said that during the past couple of years, the world's economy had been troubling. Under the name of economic and technological development, the situation had worsened and the poor were the silent victims. Recovery was expected to be a long and uphill road, including for his country, which had placed great importance on a new approach to population and development strategies at all levels.
He said the current Thai population trends and structures had shown a pattern of progress, evident in such indicators as a decline in the population growth rate, a reduction in the maternal mortality rate and an increase in the numbers of young people and those 60 years of age and older. Life expectancy had increased and education was being coordinated beyond 12 years of age. In addition, the country had mapped out various strategies for providing basic social and health services to cope with changes in demographic and population structures, as well as the economic situation.
He said, however, that the international economic crisis, which had begun in 1997, coupled with an imbalance in economic growth and large-scale internal and cross-border migration had caused many health and social problems, which threatened to set back the country's positive growth records by several years. Health problems, such as an emergence of HIV/AIDS, substance abuse and mental health concerns had been increasingly reported in the past few years.
Among the positive trends was the expressed political commitment of his country to fulfil the Cairo Conference Programme of Action, he said. In addition, the Government had strengthened its partnership with both the public and private sectors, and non-governmental organizations in order to redirect implementation of existing programmes, particularly in the fields of health and education. It hoped to follow the course set out by the Cairo Conference, but some areas still required external cooperation in terms of human resource development and mobilization, and strengthened information management.
Population Commission - 11 - Press Release POP/711 1st Meeting (AM) 22 March 1999
Despite a difficult period, Thailand was firmly committed to implementing the population and development goals envisaged at the Cairo Conference.
DZINA SBARSKAYA (Russian Federation) said her country, like other transitional countries, had great problems in tackling population problems. Last year it saw a certain number of positive changes in population trends. However, there had been no breakthrough in the demographic status of the country. The current population of her country was 146.3 million, although it was experiencing a continuing decline in population due to natural factors. There was also a problem of growing migration, due to a lack of employment. Birth rates had been down throughout the 1990s and that was true for rural and urban women. There were many more older people in the population. Forecasts showed that there would be 8 million fewer people in her country by 2015.
Although the mortality rate was going down, it was still among the highest in Europe, she said. Also, the number of sexually-transmitted diseases had increased, especially among children. There was an increase in young drug addicts, as well, which led to an increase in HIV/AIDS cases. Population problems were made more acute by the country's social and economic situation. It had taken a number of steps to address population concerns, such as infant mortality rates and its main demographic priorities were to decrease the mortality rate and increase life expectancy. International cooperation in that regard was crucial.
YANG KUIFU (China) said that China's population totalled 1.25 billion, of which 370 million were urban residents and 870 million were rural. Thanks to 20 years of family planning efforts, the birth rate had declined from 33.4 per cent in 1970 to 16.3 per cent in 1998. The age structure of China's population was in the process of rapid change, due to decreased fertility rates in a short time. By the year 2000, the number of people aged 60 years and older would reach 130 million, making up 10 per cent of the total population. Since the 1980s, China's economic development had accelerated the urbanization process and in 1998 the urban population was 30.4 per cent of the total population.
With the coming of the new century, she said China faced increased population pressures resulting from its huge number of people and the ageing of its population. The Government believed that the key solution lay in its commitment to: develop the economy vigorously; enhance its comprehensive national strength; integrate its population programmes into its general strategy for development; and utilize its natural resources rationally. In recent years it had given special attention to combining family planning programmes with poverty alleviation efforts. To address ageing, China was placing a greater focus on the family and social structures. In that regard it had recently passed a law on the protection of elderly rights, which would, among other things, improve social security systems.
* *** *