COMMISSION ON POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT TO MEET AT HEADQUARTERS 22 - 31 MARCH

18 March 1999

Press Release
POP/709

COMMISSION ON POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT TO MEET AT HEADQUARTERS 22 - 31 MARCH

19990318 Background Release Session to Include Meeting of Preparatory Committee for Assembly's Special Session on Review of Implementation of Cairo Programme of Action

Mobilization of resources for population and development must be listed high on the global development agenda, the Secretary-General states in one of several reports before the Commission on Population and Development, due to begin its thirty-second session at Headquarters on Monday, 22 March.

Following its annual session, the Commission will meet from 24 to 31 March as the preparatory committee for the special session of the General Assembly for the review and appraisal of the implementation of the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (Cairo, 1994), to be convened from 30 June to 2 July.

The central theme of the upcoming session, from 22 to 24 March, will be "Population growth, structure and distribution, with special emphasis on sustained economic growth and sustainable development, including education". World demographic trends and patterns of international migration will also be examined.

The Cairo Conference was a milestone in the international community's approach to population and development issues. It identified a strategy to stabilize world population growth and achieve sustainable development by addressing reproductive health needs, rights and responsibilities of individuals.

The current session will mark the Commission's completion of its first five-year topic-oriented and prioritized multi-year work programme following the Conference, culminating in the Assembly's review of the implementation of the Cairo outcome.

The Commission will have before it reports of the Secretary-General on world population monitoring; world demographic trends; the financial aspects of implementing the Programme of Action; and programme implementation and

progress of work in 1999 in the field of population. It will also consider a report of the Technical Symposium on International Migration and Development of the Administrative Committee on Coordination (ACC) Task Force on Basic Social Services, and a note by the Secretary-General on the proposed programme of work in population for the biennium 2000-2001.

In its capacity as the preparatory body for the special session, the Commission will have before it reports of the Secretary-General on: appraisal of the progress made in implementing the Programme of Action; draft measures for its further implementation; and a report of The Hague Forum on the Programme's implementation.

A summary of reports before the Commission follows.

The Secretary-General's report on world population monitoring (document E/CN.9/1999/2) provides a summary of recent information on population growth, structure and distribution, and covers such topics as population growth and its components; changing population age structures; population distribution, urbanization and internal migration; and population growth, poverty, food provision and the environment. Related aspects underlying the changes in population are also examined, including shifts in mortality, fertility and migration. The report reviews the population policies adopted by governments in response to their concerns about national aspects of population and development. Past and present trends are covered, and projections to the year 2050 are provided.

The report finds that the second half of the twentieth century was demographically remarkable. World population has increased from 4 billion to nearly 6 billion. At the same time, the world population growth rate has fallen from about 2 per cent per year in 1970 to 1975 to 1.3 per cent today. The average number of children per couple has fallen from 4.5 to 2.7 and life expectancy at birth has risen from 56 years to 65 years. The share of the world's population living in urban areas has increased from 36 to 47 per cent and the number of mega-cities of 10 million persons or more has multiplied from 5 to 18. The number of persons who have moved to another country has risen to over 125 million today.

The demographic transition -- from high to low birth and death rates -- has not proceeded uniformly in all countries, the report continues. In 1974, the transition was well underway or nearly completed in many countries and had barely begun in others. Although in 1998 this transition occurred in nearly every country, the timing and pace of the transition varied; and in some regions and countries, steps backward occurred. For example, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and other emerging diseases in some countries and economic and political dislocations in others have reversed past progress in improving health and reducing mortality.

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The report underscores the link between poverty reduction, food provision and environmental maintenance and demographic economic and political change. "Vicious circles" of cumulatively worsening performance in each of the latter two dimensions may be exacerbated by rapid population growth. Breaking this interacting web can be facilitated by government policies that promote income growth, empower the poor with education and health, and provide incentives to behave prudently in the allocation of resources. Such policies can lead to "virtuous circles" of cumulatively improving performance in all three dimensions. In such a situation, children would be less likely to be seen as producing agents, women's and men's roles change, and the demand for reproductive health services increases.

Economic and demographic change are mutually interacting forces influenced by institutional settings and government policy, the report explains. As a result, population policies are an important element of the policy-making components needed to advance social and economic development, eliminate poverty and foster long run environmental stewardship.

The report of the Secretary-General on international migration and development (document E/CN.9/1999/3) responds to the request made by the Commission in 1997 to report on the deliberations of the Technical Symposium on International Migration and Development, held in The Hague from 29 June to 3 July 1998.

The report defines the role of the Technical Symposium as part of the follow-up activities for the implementation of the recommendations adopted at the Cairo Conference, the World Summit for Social Development (Copenhagen, 1995), and the Fourth World Conference on Women (Beijing, 1995). It was organized by the United Nations Working Group on International Migration of the Administrative Committee on Coordination (ACC) Task Force on Basic Social Services for All. Hosted by the Netherlands, the Symposium was attended by 49 experts from 33 countries, and representatives of United Nations, intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations, as well as scholars from universities and research institutes.

The Symposium examined salient policy issues on international migration and development, the report states. It considered ways of improving knowledge on the causes of migration, and assessed the effectiveness of migration policies and related measures at the country level. With respect to migration for employment, the Symposium discussed the problems arising from the irregular employment of international migrants and provided insights about the effectiveness of measures taken by countries of origin to protect their migrant workers abroad. The social and cultural situation of long-term migrants was analyzed and measures to prevent their marginalization were assessed.

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Recognizing the importance of return migration, the Symposium examined its implications for the development of countries of origin and the problems posed by large and unexpected return flows, the report continued. It devoted particular attention to forced migration and the changing responses to it in the various world regions.

By covering such a variety of issues and paying particular attention to the assessment of migration policy, the report finds that the Symposium made a significant contribution to the review and appraisal process of the Cairo Conference's Programme of Action. A total of 30 substantive papers were presented, including various country case studies. By undertaking a thorough examination of salient policy issues, the Symposium sought to advance the knowledge required for a better management of orderly migration in ways that would prove beneficial to both sending and receiving countries.

The Symposium underscored the fact that international migration poses major challenges to the international community -- made all the more daunting by the pervasiveness of negative public perceptions about international migration and the generally limited recognition of the significant contributions made by migrants to the host societies. A factor that contributed to common misapprehensions about international migration is the deficiency on international migration data.

A panel discussion concluding the Symposium highlighted the main findings and policy implications of the debates. The importance of international cooperation based on an appropriate balance of the concerns of the various parties was stressed. The international harmonization of migration and asylum policies seemed a long-term goal which was most likely to be reached at the regional level. Attention was drawn to the gulf between formal rights and the actual treatment of migrants.

Continuing, the panel found that the need to create conditions favouring the full participation of migrants in society was underscored. Despite globalization, States still had considerable power to control international migration, however, ill-conceived control mechanisms or disproportionate focus on control might be contributing to the rise in irregular migration. It was stressed that nobody wanted to be an illegal migrant; the challenge was to create conditions that made this unnecessary.

The annual report of the Secretary-General on the flow of financial resources for assisting implementation of the Programme of Action (document E/CN.9/1999/4) reviews external assistance for population activities for 1997, and analyses trends in donor country, multilateral and private population assistance from the immediate pre-Conference period (1993) to the latest available figures (provisional 1997). It also estimates government and non- governmental expenditures for population activities in developing countries. Data collection activities for both donor and domestic resource flows were

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undertaken by the Netherlands Inter-disciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) under a contract with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). The Demographic Institute evaluated and analyzed the data in close collaboration with UNFPA.

The report recalls that the Programme of Action had anticipated the need for additional resources to support population and development programme objectives in those areas not specifically costed in the Programme. Those included activities designed to improve women's status, generate employment, address environmental concerns, provide basic social services and address poverty eradication through sustained economic growth in the context of sustainable development.

In the immediate post-Conference period, the report finds that international assistance for population activities increased 54 per cent between 1993 and 1995, from a total of $1.3 billion in 1993 to $2 billion in 1995. This figure represents roughly 35 per cent of the $5.7 billion target agreed upon in Cairo as the international community's share in financing the Programme of Action. Preliminary indications for 1997 show that total assistance for population decreased to just under $1.9 billion. The momentum generated by the Cairo Conference appeared to have stalled by 1996, when international assistance remained at the 1995 level of $2 billion.

While some donors increased their contributions in 1997, others are at, or below, 1996 levels, the report states. Difficult economic circumstances resulting in budget cuts and declining official development assistance (ODA) have translated into "stagnating or decreasing" funding for population programmes. Preliminary indications for 1997 point to the first decrease in international assistance for population activities in the post-Conference period. Domestic research flows originating from government, non-governmental organization and private sources in 1997 are estimated at just under $8 billion, slightly less than in 1996. The external assistance and domestic expenditure data yield a preliminary global total estimate for population- related expenditures in 1997 of $9.6 billion.

The report states that a number of developing countries have shown commitment to implementing the Programme of Action by formulating new, or revising existing, national population and development policies in line with Conference goals; implementing population programmes; and allocating resources for population activities. Provisional evidence from the report on the 20/20 initiative, which addresses many population-related activities, indicates that developing countries allocate, on average, about 13 per cent of their national budgets to basic social services; donor countries spend about 10 per cent of ODA to support these services.

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Continuing, the report states that the UNFPA global estimate of under $8 billion conceals the great variation that exists among countries in their ability to mobilize domestic resources for population activities. Most developing countries cannot be expected to generate the required resources to implement their population programmes. In the least developing countries and other low-income countries, a relatively larger part of the total required resources will have to come from external sources on a concessional basis.

Attainment of the Conference resource goal of $17 billion for the year 2000 is still a long way off. Given 1997 levels, both external and domestic funding for 1999 would have to increase considerably in order for the target to be reached. Considerable progress has been made, but there is a far way to go. While funding for population has increased since the Conference, it has not increased at a rate that would ensure mobilizing the required $17 billion by the year 2000.

The Secretary-General concludes that mobilization of resources for population and development must be listed high on the global development agenda. Donors and developing countries should re-examine priorities and increase allocations for population and related sectors. Donors should coordinate financing policies and planning procedures to enhance the impact and cost-effectiveness of contributions to population programmes. Given limited financial resources, it is essential that both donors and recipient Governments ensure that resources are used effectively and efficiently to meet Conference objectives.

The report of the Secretary-General on world demographic trends (document E/CN.9/1999/5) examines the size and growth of populations in the world and its regions, along with the demographic components of fertility, mortality and international migration that determine those trends. The report is based on the results of the 1998 revision of global population estimates and projections, prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs. That revision includes six major areas of the world, 20 regions and 228 countries or areas.

The mid-year world population in 1998 is estimated to be 5.9 billion, growing at a rate of 1.3 per cent annually. Each year, about 78 million persons are currently added to the world. In the medium-fertility variant, the total world population will grow to 8.9 billion people in 2050, a 51 per cent increase from its 1998 level. During the same period, annual population growth rates will be declining from 1.3 per cent in 1995-2000 to 0.3 per cent in the period 2045-2050.

In 1998, four out of five people in the world -- 4.7 billion -- lived in the less developed regions, while 20 per cent, 1.2 billion, live in the more developed regions. The contributions of the more and less developed regions to the growth of the world's population differ widely, reflecting the

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different positions these regions have, on average, in the demographic transition: during 1998, about 96 per cent (74 million), of the total annual population increase originated in the less developed regions of the world; the more developed regions added about 3 million.

The population of the less developed regions grew, between 1970 and 1998, from 2.7 billion to 4.7 billion people, an increase of 76 per cent. The 1970s marked a significant turning point in the evolution of demographic growth patterns: before 1970 (between 1950 and 1970), population growth rates still accelerated, peaking at 2.5 per cent per year between 1965 and 1970. Since then, the population growth rate of the less developed regions has been falling; it is expected to be 1.6 per cent between 1995 and 2000, and is projected to fall further to 0.4 per cent by the end of the projection horizon (2045-2050).

The more developed regions have exhibited since 1970 a combination of almost constantly falling growth rates, and still increasing population size, says the report. Between 1970 and 1998, the population of the more developed regions increased from 1.01 billion to about 1.18 billion, or by 17 per cent. As a result of the marked differences in growth patterns between more developed and less developed regions, the proportions of people living in the more and the less developed regions have changed and will continue to change significantly.

Population distribution and population growth differ markedly among the major areas, past and present. Asia, Africa and, to a lesser extent, Latin America and the Caribbean all increased their shares of the world population between 1970 and 1998: Asia's share of the world population rose from 58 to 61 per cent; Africa's, from 10 to 13 per cent; and that of Latin America and the Caribbean, from 8 to 9 per cent. During the same period, the share of North America declined from 6 per cent in 1950 to 5 per cent in 1998, and that of Europe fell from 18 to 12 per cent.

During the twentieth century, the contribution of net migration to population growth has been of small demographic importance for most countries of the world, especially for the numerous countries where natural increase has been high and where there has been no explicit or implicit policy favouring the inflow or the outflow of international migrants. However, the marked reduction of fertility experienced by many countries over the past three decades implies that the importance of international migration in determining population growth has been increasing.

The report of the Secretary-General on programme implementation and progress of work in the field of population in 1998: Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (document E/CN.9/1999/6) covers the activities of the Division in regard to: the analysis of demographic variables at the world level; world population projections; population policy

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and socio-economic development; monitoring, review and appraisal, coordination and dissemination of population information, and technical cooperation in population.

Under analysis of demographic variables at world level, the report states that over the past few years, data coverage on contraceptive prevalence has improved remarkably in the developing world, especially in Africa. That data shows that, in developed areas, 70 per cent of married women were using some form of birth control. That number was down to 55 per cent in the less developed regions. Sterilization, especially female sterilization, is the most prevalent method of family planning in the world. It is widely used as a method of contraception in much of Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern Europe, North America, and Australia and New Zealand. The next most prevalent method is the intrauterine device (IUD), followed by the pill.

In regard to world population projections, the report states that at mid-1998 world population stood at 5.9 billion persons, with 80 per cent residing in the less developed regions. The world population is growing at a rate of 1.3 per cent per year, which is significantly less than the peak growth rate of 2 per cent in 1965-1970, and less than the rate of 1.5 per cent in 1990-1995. In the mid-twenty-first century, world population will be in the range of 7.3 billion to 10.7 billion, depending on the assumed future fertility trends. In the medium-fertility variant, the world population reaches 8.9 billion in 2050.

The 1998 figures shows a devastating toll from AIDS with respect to mortality and population loss. In the 29 African countries in which the impact of AIDS was studied, life expectancy at birth is projected to decrease to 47 years in 1995-2000, whereas it would have been expected to reach 54 years in the absence of the AIDS epidemic. There is thus a loss of seven years. In the nine hardest-hit countries, with an adult human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence of 10 per cent or more, the average life expectancy at birth is projected to be 10 years less than it would have been in the absence of AIDS.

In regard to abortion, the Division found that nearly all countries (97 per cent) have policies that permit legal abortions to be performed to save the woman's life. The proportions of countries with policies that permit legal abortion for other reasons vary: 63 per cent permit legal abortion to preserve the woman's physical health; 51 per cent to preserve the woman's mental health; 43 per cent for rape or incest; 42 per cent when there is a possibility of foetal impairment; 31 per cent for economic or social reasons; and 25 per cent upon request.

The report states that the growth rate of the world's population is estimated to have peaked in the 1960s, and has declined significantly since then. Important advances have been made in making accessible the means to

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combat the most common diseases of childhood, and an increasing number of children are routinely immunized against major disease. Improvements in life expectancy at birth in the past half century, for both developing and developed countries, represent a remarkable social and demographic achievement.

A note by the Secretary-General on the proposed programme of work in population for the biennium 2000-2001: Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (document E/CN.9/1999/7), states that it was prepared under the medium term plan for the period 1998-2001, adopted by the General Assembly in its resolution 51/219 of 18 December 1996. The programme of work still has to be reviewed by the Committee for Programme and Coordination (CPC), the Advisory Committee on Administrative and Budgetary Questions (ACABQ) and the Assembly's Fifth Committee (Administrative and Budgetary) and approved by the Assembly's fifty-fourth session.

The proposed programme of work includes: undertaking follow-up activities relating to the International Conference on Population and Development; carrying out research of the highest priority at the global level; disseminating research findings in the most effective manner possible; and providing substantive support for the technical cooperation projects in the field of population.

The Secretary-General's report on review and appraisal of the progress made in achieving the goals and objectives of the Cairo Programme of Action (document E/CN.9/1999/PC/2) summarizes the results of the first quinquennial review and appraisal of the progress made in achieving its goals and objectives. It provides an overall assessment of the issues concerning population trends, population growth, structure and distribution, reproductive rights and reproductive health, health and mortality, international migration and development, and population programmes and resources -- designated as themes for discussion and debate at the Commission's twenty-ninth through thirty-second sessions.

The report notes that only five years have elapsed since the adoption of the Programme of Action, so that notable changes in government policies and establishment of new programmes along its have not yet had time to fully bear fruit. It is clear that for some issues and for some countries, regions and groups, progress has been achieved.

Mortality in most countries has continued to fall since the Conference, the report finds. Reproductive health programmes have been established in many countries and rising contraceptive use among couples indicates greater accessibility to family planning and greater ability of couples to have the number and spacing of children they desire. Many countries have taken important steps to manage international migration flows through bi-national and multinational agreements. In addition, many in civil society are

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contributing to the formulation and implementation of policies and programmes on their own or in partnerships with governmental and intergovernmental institutions.

Nonetheless, the report states that for some issues and for some countries, regions and groups, progress has been limited, and in some cases setbacks have even occurred. The HIV/AIDS pandemic has led to rises in mortality in many countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Political shocks and adjustments from the transition to market economies for a number of countries in Asia and Europe have been accompanied by stagnation and rises in mortality, particularly among adult men. Yet to be seen is the extent to which the financial crises that are affecting social welfare in countries of East Asia and elsewhere will limit their progress in implementing the Programme of Action.

Progress has been achieved but it is uneven, and a great deal remains to be done, the report concludes. Resources are necessary, but national evidence shows that government leadership, priorities and commitment are the critical variables for successful implementation of the Programme of Action. With sufficient resources and committed government action, the 2004 review and appraisal will no doubt document enormous progress in achieving the goals and objectives of the Cairo outcome.

A note by the Secretary-General (document E/CN.9/1999/PC/3) transmits the report of the International Forum for the Operational Review and Appraisal of the Implementation of the ICPD Programme of Action, held at The Hague from 8 to 12 February. The Forum was an integral part of the five-year review of the implementation of the Programme of Action, which has included numerous meetings and a series of five-year regional reviews by the United Nations Regional Commissions.

The report finds that considerable progress had been made in policy, programme redesign, increased partnership and collaboration directed toward implementation of the ICPD. Many countries had made policy, legislative and/or institutional changes in the areas of population and development and reproductive health and rights. In the countries with economies in transition there has been particular progress in the area of reproductive health and rights. In addition, in many settings, democratization and improved transparency in governance, expanded activity of voluntary associations, improvements in communications and legal and policy modifications have advanced the prospects for the participatory approach which is at the centre of successful implementation of the Programme of Action.

A review of progress over the last five years on the scope of collaborative efforts with civil society provides a basis for optimism, the report states. The devolution of public responsibilities, decentralization of public administrations and other institutional changes have also greatly

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accelerated and have created new opportunities and challenges for development activities. In addition, major strides have been taken in procedural areas, such as positive changes in the concept of participation and the processes for consultation; recognition of the enhanced role of civil society; increasing acceptance of innovative development approaches; and improved partnership among United Nations organizations and bodies.

Since 1994, however, the world has also faced a series of adverse occurrences and developments that have had major impacts on the implementation of the Programme of Action, including the severe financial crises in many countries and a series of natural disasters.

Global population has doubled since 1960 and 97 per cent of future projected growth will occur in developing countries, where the exercise of reproductive rights is in many places far more precarious, the report continues. As people have been given greater choice, rates of population growth have continued to decline. The world is still growing by 77 million people per year, however, and population stabilization will not be reached for 50 years at the earliest. Later this year, on 12 October, the world population will reach 6 billion people.

At the approach of the new millennium, the report notes, there are more than 1 billion young people between the ages of 15 and 24, the largest cohort at these ages ever. The sexual and reproductive health needs of these young people are not yet adequately addressed. Many do not have access to information and services to protect their health and make choices freely and responsibly. Young women are particularly vulnerable to unwanted pregnancy, sexual violence and susceptible to infection with sexually transmitted diseases, including HIV/AIDS. Young women, especially those under age 18, are at the highest risk of maternal mortality and morbidity. The choices the young make about the timing and spacing of their children will determine the pace of future population growth. The education and opportunities they are given from a young age will determine the quality of their lives.

The contexts for implementation of population and development programmes are varied, the report notes. The Programme of Action recognizes the need to take fully into account the economic, social, religious, cultural and environmental diversity of conditions in each country, as well as the shared but differentiated responsibilities of all people to forge a better common future. The discussions at the Forum reaffirmed both the common threads and the variety of national experiences and provided an opportunity for information exchange and the rediscovery and reaffirmation of shared perspectives.

The report of the Secretary-General on proposals for key actions for further implementation of the Action Programme (document E/CD.9/1999/PC/4) presents the principal findings of a series of extensive reviews of progress

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made and constraints encountered in implementing the ICPD Programme of Action. Implementation of the recommendations of the 20-year Programme and realistically meeting its objectives and goals is off to a good start. Particularly good progress was made on many population and reproductive health fronts between mid-1994 and mid-1997, however, financial crises in many developing countries, coupled with declines in official development assistance (ODA) and a levelling-off of international population assistance have slowed the rate of progress.

The Secretary-General states that the five-year review points to the need for renewed political commitment to the principles and goals of the Programme of Action. It also highlights the fact that considerable progress has been made with only modest investments. This has been possible because of the growing support for the Programme of Action in both developed and developing countries and increased partnerships between governments, civil society, including non-governmental organizations, and the international community. If implementation of the Programme of Action is to be accelerated, however, a number of financial, institutional and human resource constraints must be overcome.

To achieve this, he continues, there is first a need for wide-ranging institutional reforms, including even closer collaboration between government and civil society and greater participation of women in policy and decision- making. Implementing these actions and addressing the full range of recommendations of the Programme will require greater political commitment and development of national capacity, since severe human resource constraints hamper both governmental and non-governmental institutions in many developing countries.

The world population will exceed 6 billion by the year 2000, the report notes. Reducing poverty among large numbers of people and ensuring basic living standards and health for all are the most important policy goals of the United Nations system and of the many global conferences on economic and social development it sponsored during the 1990s. Increased political will and mobilization of the resources agreed at Cairo will accelerate implementation of the Programme of Action, which in turn, will contribute to the advancement of the broader development agenda.

Background on Commission

The Commission on Population and Development was founded in 1946 as the Population Commission to study and advise the Economic and Social Council on population changes, including migration, and their effect on economic and social conditions.

The International Conference on Population and Development (Cairo, 1994) gave the Commission new impetus: its name was changed to the Commission on

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Population and Development; and it was decided that the Commission should meet annually beginning in 1996 to assess implementation of the Cairo Conference's Programme of Action at the national, regional and international levels.

Over the years, the Commission's membership has been increased to the current 47 members. It met for the first time in New York as an expanded body from 26 February to 1 March 1996.

Membership

The 45 members of the Commission in 1999 are: Bangladesh, Belgium, Bulgaria, Brazil, Burundi, Cameroon, Canada, Chile, China, Côte d'Ivoire, Croatia, Egypt, El Salvador, Ethiopia, France, Germany, Guinea, Haiti, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Iran, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Kenya, Malawi, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Niger, Nigeria, Panama, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, South Africa, Sudan, Sweden, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States and Yemen.

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