PRESS CONFERENCE BY ZOGBY INTERNATIONAL ON OPINION OF UNITED STATES VOTERS ABOUT UNITED NATIONS

Press Briefing

PRESS CONFERENCE BY ZOGBY INTERNATIONAL ON OPINION OF UNITED STATES VOTERS ABOUT UNITED NATIONS

A majority of Americans wants the United States to pay the $1.4 billion in back dues owed to the United Nations, and a solid percentage also rates the Organization favourably, according to a new poll of 1003 likely voters. That was announced at a Headquarters press briefing this afternoon by John Zogby, President of Zogby International, a polling and market research organization, which conducted the poll from 10 to 13 December 1998.

He said: "United States voters seem to like the United Nations and want the United States Government to support it. Despite taking hits from United States critics over matters of administration and social policies like contraception, voter support appeared to be very strong and in terms of favourability, fairly deep as well."

Mr. Zogby said seven out of 10 (or 70 per cent) United States voters had a favourable opinion of the United Nations, while one in four had either a somewhat or a very unfavourable opinion. Three per cent were not sure. He explained that the 70 per cent was a "very strong majority". Majorities of all sub-groups had a favourable or somewhat favourable opinion of the Organization. That included 57 per cent Republican voters, 73 per cent independent voters and 69 per cent of voters living in the south of the country. Seventy per cent of them identified themselves as born-again Christians.

In other findings, he said a sample of voters were asked whether they agreed or disagreed that the United States should pay the $1.4 billion in back dues owed to the United Nations. Sixty-two per cent agreed that the United States should pay that amount, while about one in four, or 27 per cent, opposed doing so. Eleven per cent were not sure, he said, adding that, again, majorities of all sub-groups favoured paying the back dues. They included 62 per cent of Democrats, 60 per cent of Republicans, 63 per cent of independents, and majorities across age groups, including 72 per cent of the youngest groups -- 18 to 29 year-olds. There was almost identical agreement among men and women -- 61 per cent to 63 per cent. Fifty-four per cent of those identified as born-again Christians agreed that the United States should pay the back dues.

A majority of American voters -- 57 per cent -- believed that the United Nations was effective in keeping the peace, promoting human rights and helping developing countries climb out of poverty, he went on. That opinion was the first of two statements framed by the pollsters. Thirty-two percent of those polled agreed with the second statement that the United Nations was a bloated bureaucracy which weakened United States sovereignty and cost tax-payers too much. Mr. Zogby said that for the most part, again, the majorities of sub- groups agreed with the first statement. Women were more positive than men:

63 per cent of them agreed with the first statement, while 50 per cent of men did. There was a tie among born-again Christians -- 45 per cent agreeing to both statements. Among non-born-again Christians, 60 per cent agreed with the first statement.

The pollsters also discovered that 51 per cent of the voters polled could name something other than peacekeeping among the things the United Nations was involved in -- the most popular being the work of the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), followed closely by humanitarian aid in general. Forty-nine per cent were not able to name anything other than peacekeeping. Among those who appeared to be more readily able to name something were: easterners and westerners; isolationist south and the midwest; and independent voters. Interestingly, Mr. Zogby said baby-boomers were more likely to name something else; while men were more likely than women to be aware of something else the United Nations was doing.

Asked in which part of the world the United Nations was viewed favourably, Mr. Zogby said the poll was not global. Wealth and education were probably significant factors in producing a more favourable response to the United Nations. Disagreements over the Organization appeared to be strongest among United States' opinion leaders. Asked to predict what the future relations between the United States and the United Nations would be, he said it would continue along. American voters were not passionate about anything right now, he said, adding "Given these kinds of numbers I would suggest that our relationships would muddle along for a few years."

Asked how accurate the poll was, he said that those polled were 1003 likely voters and that the margin of sampling error, was "plus and minus, 3.2 per cent". The margin of error was higher among sub-groups, depending on their size.

Responding to a question, he said the core constituency in many Congressional districts "is a fire-breathing hard-core conservative constituency". They not only vote, but had their "galoshes and umbrellas right by the door ready for the next vote". He added that Americans as a whole were not politically passionate, but a select group -- those Republicans in highly contested districts -- counted on the support of those who turned out to vote. It is rather difficult then for a Congressional candidate on the Republican side to ignore this constituency".

Continuing, Mr. Zogby said Republican candidates were in a bind. There seemed to be "a chipping away" among born-again Christians. They were not as solidly right wing as had previously been thought, he said. About 30 per cent of that group typically voted Democrat, and were moderate to liberal on issues. About 30 per cent of that group opposed the impeachment of the President. "Very importantly, in those last round of Congressional elections, 34 per cent of those identified as born-again Christians voted for Democratic candidates."

Zogby Press Conference - 3 - 4 January 1999

A correspondent asked how he saw the chances of former Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey for the Democratic nomination for President; Elizabeth Dole, for the Republican nomination for President; First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton for a Democratic Senate seat of New York; and Vice-President Al Gore for the Democratic nomination for President.

Replying, Mr. Zogby said he believed that on the institutional side, given the Democratic administration and the structure of the party establishment, one would have to say that Vice-President Gore was "in good shape" as a front-runner. He added that, historically, Democrats had a tendency to "chew up and spit out their front-runners and do so very early". Vice-President Gore's biggest problem was that not only was history against him but "two other problems". Mr. Zogby said "Somebody, somehow, will take the problems of this Administration. In addition to that, the Vice-President is polling so high right now (in the opinion polls) that he unfortunately creates an expectation level that may be just too high for him to meet."

The Presidential nomination on the Democratic side would go a couple of ways, he said. One way was Senator Bradley, Mr. Zogby said, adding: "Senator Bradley is a moderate and moderates did very well in 1998. Senator Bradley has a potential of bringing in white men into the Democratic Party as a result of his years as a basketball super star. And lastly, Senator Bradley is boring. After eight years, America may be ready for a bore."

On the Republican side, he said that if the nomination were to be made today, Governor George W. Bush of Texas was so far ahead that he had not only the money, but establishment links. He did well among women, which was a plus for a Republican. He also did extremely well among Hispanic voters, "which is a kind of a sleeping giant among American voters". The problems were that Governor Bush might find the scrutiny "a little too tough". He was so far ahead that all he had to do was to slip, and that could be interpreted as a major fall.

Mr. Zogby said his organization had done some polling which showed that major players on the Republican side, apart from Governor Bush and Forbes magazine publisher, Steve Forbes, were testimonial to the fact if one had a dream and a million dollars to spend, one could achieve great things. He said Mr. Forbes had a focused message with appeal. Mrs. Dole had the potential of bringing women into the Republic Party, as well as name recognition and her record. He added that his organization did a blind polling last month -- it just related short biographies of people without mentioning names. It found Senator McCaine's biography more appealing than any one else among Republicans.

A correspondent observed that in the last few years opinion polls had become a key factor in policy-making decisions. Did he see that as a plus for the consolidation of democracy or a way to manipulate democracy? Mr. Zogby said he had problems when public opinion polls were used as a sole determinant

Zogby Press Conference - 4 - 4 January 1999

from a policy standpoint. "I think that is dangerous." He thought public opinion, at best, could only be a factor in a mix. In his view, numbers like the survey just conducted could help to bolster those who needed to make a strong case for the United Nations and for the United States. It could give cause to those who were enemies of the United Nations. It was also the sort of thing that could be used to rally supporters of the United Nations. "These kinds of numbers must never be the sole determinant in how policy is made in any legislative body."

Asked what sort of image the United Nations was sending out, he said: "When I see 18 to 29-year olds very positive about the United Nations, and I see those under 50, especially citing UNICEF, the World Health Organization (WHO) and humanitarian aid, those are very strong messages, not only among young people, but among women. That is very good." He added: "I think the American public needs to be constantly reminded that the United Nations is more than a peacekeeping force. There is a lot of important work it is involved in -- education, development and health care." He added that for people to state off the top of their heads that the United Nations was engaged in something other than peacekeeping showed that there was "a solid core of support out there".

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