WORKING GROUP ON INFORMATICS BEGINS MEETING AT HEADQUARTERS FOCUSING ON GLOBAL RESPONSE TO YEAR 2000 'COMPUTER BUG'
Press Release
PI/1106
WORKING GROUP ON INFORMATICS BEGINS MEETING AT HEADQUARTERS FOCUSING ON GLOBAL RESPONSE TO YEAR 2000 'COMPUTER BUG'
19981211 The world was competing in a race against time in facing the Y2K problem, the Chairman of the Open-ended Working Group on Informatics, Ahmad Kamal (Pakistan), said this morning as he opened a whole day meeting of the Group devoted to the Year 2000 Issue, focusing on international cooperation, contingency planning for priority sectors and crisis management.Mr. Kamal said that despite all the efforts and committed work of individuals and institutions, the international community was far from the objective of ensuring Y2K compliance by the inflexible deadline of 31 December 1999. As a result there were two tasks thrust upon the world community: to ensure the maximum level of compliance by the due date; and to plan for all the crisis situations that were certain to arise in the year 2000 as different sectors of activity were hit by the Y2K problem.
Also addressing the meeting, Under-Secretary-General for Management Joseph E. Connor said that with timely remedial actions and good contingency plans for recovery, it would be possible to limit the effect of the "millennium bug" on most people and institutions to inconvenience rather than major disaster. Nevertheless, the Y2K problem could not be postponed. The date was inevitable and related only to the calendar. For Y2K projects, the deadline was fixed and not negotiable. Its impact would depend on the degree to which the issue had been dealt with and the contingency plans that had been put in place.
The Working Group on Informatics has been studying diverse aspects of the year 2000 problem. Assessments of the severity of the impact of the so-called "millennium bug" -- brought about when dating systems within computer software become inoperative at the moment of transition from years starting with "19" to those starting with "20" -- vary widely. The impact on developing countries is even more of an unknown quantity. In all countries, however, air traffic control, telecommunications, financial services and government services are at particular risk. (For background information, see Press Release PI/1103 of 9 December.)
The Working Group is conducting its work in closed session. At 3 p.m. today Secretary-General Kofi Annan will address an open meeting of the Group.
Opening Statement by Chairman of Working Group on Informatics
AHMAD KAMAL (Pakistan), Chairman of the United Nations Working Group on Informatics, said the world was competing in a race against time in facing the Y2K problem. Despite all the efforts and committed work of individuals and institutions, the international community was far from the objective of ensuring Y2K compliance by the inflexible deadline of 31 December 1999. As a result there were two tasks thrust upon the world community: to ensure the maximum level of compliance by the due date; and to plan for all the crisis situations that were certain to arise in the year 2000 as different sectors of activity were hit by the Y2K problem.
There was little point in commiserating over how the situation had occurred and why remedial action had been so deeply delayed around the world, he said. Nor was there any point in trying to deliberate on the overall size of the Y2K problem or to attempt to put a figure on the cost of remedial action. Irrespective of its size, it was a problem that had to be solved. The international community had a common stake in its solution. The task here today was not to look into the past, but to move forward into the future and beyond.
He said that, during the course of the day, participants in the meeting would have the opportunity to converse about different aspects of the problem, about the new dangers that were being discovered every day, about the actual work that had been done by Member States, about the magnitude of the work that still remained to done, and about what States could learn from others about contingency planning and crisis management.
Statement by Under-Secretary-General for Management
JOSEPH E. CONNOR, Under-Secretary-General for Management, said that the essence of the Year 2000 problem was that it was impossible to accurately predict its effect on the world. Only 386 days were left before the beginning of the new millennium, out of which only about 260 were working days. That did not leave much time to assess the situation and take all necessary action.
The Y2K event represented the largest computing project that the information technology industry had faced in the 50-year history of its existence, he continued. Estimated global cost for remedying the problem could be as high as $600 billion and possible litigation after the event could reach $1.4 trillion. No matter how much the world prepared, some aspects would be overlooked and manifest themselves only in the new millennium.
While the United Nations had taken many steps to ensure that its own systems and facilities were Y2K compliant, it had no control over numerous external dependencies and relationships, he said. Y2K was fundamentally different from other situations, because it was impossible to draw on past experiences and predict what was going to fail and what consequences those failures would have. Only the timing was definite. Y2K could cause multiple
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simultaneous failures worldwide. In an increasingly networked world, non-compliant data could create a "domino effect", affecting even compliant systems.
Furthermore, not all failures would occur at midnight on 31 December 1999. Some of them were already occurring, such as credit cards being rejected as "expired" at the point of sale. Other problems would continue to appear well into the next century as unanticipated or unresolved date-related operations were executed.
The report of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), entitled "The Year 2000 problem: Impact and Actions", which was published in early October, presented an excellent summary of the world's state of preparedness to deal with the situation, he continued. According to that report, strong international cooperation was essential. Bilateral as well as multilateral tests, plans and discussions were more necessary than ever before, given the truly global nature of the challenge the world was facing. It was not just another technical problem, which could be left to experts to resolve. It was foremost a management problem to be addressed at a high level. Disruptions were unavoidable, and many cross-border activities would be affected.
He said that the Global Summit on Year 2000 held in London in mid-October also focused on strengthening international cooperation. Many organizations and governments had invested massive intellectual effort, as well as unprecedented sums of money into the problem, yet that could prove to be not enough. There was simply no time or skills to address some aspects of the problem, and the "domino effect" had to be considered. An example frequently quoted was that of air transport: many major airlines had already stated that their airplanes and operations would be Y2K compliant, but there was concern over hundreds of air traffic control and airport systems on which they relied.
The spectrum of public panic had been raised by several publications, he continued, and many stories in the press indicated that a number of countries could be developing plans to handle civil disorder or panic -- from massive cash withdrawals from banks to looting. Speaking about the work that had been already completed to achieve compliance, he said that according to the OECD report, finance, banking, insurance and airlines had a high degree of compliance. Telecommunications, manufacturing, energy and shipping had a medium degree of compliance, and government services fell between medium and low, while health care, retail services, small and medium businesses, agriculture and construction had a low degree of compliance.
He went on to say that information from other sources suggested that the degree of compliance varied tremendously between countries, but even the best prepared countries were going to encounter significant problems. Remediation work remained the highest priority, but the human and financial resources required to carry out that work were limited. Therefore, the focus must be on
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prioritizing systems and facilities in terms of their impact on an organization's ability to fulfil its objectives. Some systems and facilities would not be addressed.
"This current phase is all about assessing risks and managing them accordingly", he said. In the new millennium, remediation work would need to continue. Alternative procedures would have to replace faulty processes. That operational recovery would be most successful if it was based on properly developed, documented and tested contingency plans.
He said that Y2K brought an additional dimension of multiple simultaneous failure to those plans. Well developed contingency plans implemented by people familiar with the procedures would greatly reduce the impact of disruptions by providing a framework where individuals had a clear understanding of their roles and responsibilities and knew what was expected of them in an emergency situation. The establishment of contingency plans was a logistic function, little related to information management. However, technology had a role to play, particularly in establishing reliable communication during an emergency. The contingency plan should identify the critical functions; define the role and responsibilities of various parties; identify component parts of the contingency plan and develop the response.
The more effort was put into documenting the plan in detail and ensuring that all players were aware of their roles and responsibilities, the more briefings, discussions, rehearsals had been carried out, the greater would be the chances that the plan would be implemented with a reasonable degree of success. The ability to act effectively on the spot and deal with the unknown, was also a major factor in the success of a contingency plan. Contingency planning would not be simple and there would be setbacks. The amount of work involved in putting together a contingency plan must not be underestimated. The same applied to testing such plans.
With timely remedial actions and good contingency plans for recovery, it would be possible to limit the effect of the millennium bug on most people and institutions to inconvenience rather than major disaster. Nevertheless, the Y2K problem could not be postponed. The date was inevitable and related only to the calendar. For Y2K projects, the deadline was fixed and not negotiable. Its impact would depend on the degree to which the issue had been dealt with and the contingency plans that had been put in place.
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