PRESS BRIEFING BY DIRECTOR OF POPULATION DIVISION

Press Briefing

PRESS BRIEFING BY DIRECTOR OF POPULATION DIVISION

World population could reach 10.8 billion by the year 2150, and ultimately stabilize at nearly 11 billion persons around the year 2200, Joseph Chamie, Director of the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, said at a press briefing this morning. If fertility rates remained constant at 1990-1995 levels for the next 155 years, there could be as many as 296 billion persons by 2150.

The Population Division prepares biennially the official United Nations population estimates and projections for countries, urban and rural areas and major cities for all countries and areas of the world. The latest revision, "World Population Prospects: The 1996 Revision", refers to the period 1950- 2050. Realization of the full consequences of changes in fertility and mortality on population growth requires a longer time-frame. Therefore, periodically the Population Division prepares population projections for an extended projection horizon.

According to the medium-fertility scenario of the new long-range projection, the world's population was anticipated to be 9.4 billion in 2050 Mr. Chamie said. The long-range projection merely extends the medium-term projections, which was usually up to the year 2050, he explained, pointing out that the long-range projections went as far as 2200. The projection was done on a periodic basis of about five to six years, and the last one had been in 1992. The current study took the 1996 revision and projected it to the year 2200.

Highlighting some other long-range results of the study, he said that according to the medium-fertility scenario, which assumed replacement levels everywhere, the current world population would grow from the current level of 5.9 billion to 9.4 billion in 2050, and stabilize at slightly under 11 billion in 2200.

The high- and low-fertility scenarios differed by only one child per couple. Half a child above replacement fertility levels was the high, and half a child below replacement levels was the low: a range of 1.5 to 2.5. Given this scenario, the world's population in 2150 could be, at the low end -- 3.6 billion persons -- or at the high end -- 27 billion.

If every couple only had two children today, Mr. Chamie pointed out, the world would reach replacement immediately, in which case -- given the age structure and the population momentum -- the population would continue to grow, reaching 9.5 billion in 2150.

According to Mr. Chamie, the study also concluded that:

-- The future would see a continued geographical shift in the distribution of the world population as the share living in the currently more developed regions decrease from 19 per cent to 10 per cent between 1995 and 2150;

-- Declining fertility and mortality rates would lead to dramatic population ageing. In the medium-fertility scenario, the share aged 60 years or above would increase from a ratio of one out of 10 persons being above 60, to one out of three by 2150; and

-- The ultimate world population size of nearly 11 billion persons according to the medium-fertility scenario of these projections was 0.7 billion persons fewer than previously published by the United Nations in 1992, owing to larger-than-expected declines in fertility in many countries.

Asked to explain the "enormous gap" between the 3.6 and 27 billion projected for the year 2150, Mr. Chamie noted that demographers tended to put data received through "considerable scrutiny", and the United Nations had always separated what was received from governments, from those issued by it. The Secretariat had a long tradition of scrutinizing official numbers for consistency, accuracy and comparability. What the current report had done was a projection, which dealt mainly with assumptions. The reason the high and low figures were so disparate was that the period at issue was so long that the one child difference above and below replacement compounded very rapidly.

Another correspondent asked whether the projections took into account infant and child mortality in the developing world. The Director said that when those countries were projected, there had indeed been assumptions about a specific mortality rate, as well as in improvements in mortality rates and life expectancies.

If, as he had indicated, he was "sceptical" about government figures, did the study use such figures as provided by Member States? Mr. Chamie replied that input was in fact taken from governments "for the current estimates and the past". For the future, however, the study took into account a comprehensive compatible set of scenarios relating to assumptions. Data received were carefully scrutinized with all of the available official numbers, in order to come up with a standard base year that could be referred to across the over 180 countries and areas that were looked at.

To a question about when fertility in the developing countries would reach replacement levels, he replied that such assumptions varied by country and was done individually for all countries, pointing out that China, for instance, was already below replacement. He stressed that there was a different pattern for each country, depending on where it was and what it was

Population Briefing - 3 - 4 February 1998

assumed the pattern would be. Those patterns and assumptions were clearly indicated in the reports that were available.

What factors accounted for the drop in fertility in Europe? a correspondent asked. Citing many factors -- historical, social and economic -- he said they all ended with women deciding they did not want many children, but zero, one or two. What would happen in future, however, was open. He cited the examples of Italy and Spain, where the fertility levels are so low (about 1.2 or 1.3) that it was difficult for the demographers there to imagine it bouncing back to replacement. Mr. Chamie cautioned against "myths", noting that while there used to be arguments about fertility being high among Catholics, the lowest fertility in the world now were in two Catholic countries: Italy and Spain. He cited another myth that had been circulated that Muslim countries could not have low fertility: fertility was coming down in Bangladesh and Turkey.

Asked to compare fertility patterns in China and Europe, he pointed out that the situation in China had been influenced by the State policy, which imposed a ceiling of one child per family.

On whether future projections would take into account the "abortion of girl foetuses in India and infanticide of girl babies in China", Mr. Chamie replied that there had been a large study on the subject. There was some "limited evidence" to it, he said, pointing out that a publication, Too Young To Die, had also examined the issue. How that translated into mortality rates in a society might be as subtle as how quickly people went to the health centre when a girl-child, as opposed to a boy-child, was involved. The media might have expressed a larger differential than the numbers actually warrant, he concluded.

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