PRESS BRIEFING BY INTERNATIONAL POPULATION EXPERTS

Press Briefing

PRESS BRIEFING BY INTERNATIONAL POPULATION EXPERTS

At a Headquarters press briefing this morning, the Professor of Demography at the University of Rome, Antonio Galini, said Italy could face a crisis in its social security system as a result of declining fertility rates. He was joined by Brita Hoem, Head of the Programme on Demography, Children and the Family, of the national statistical office, Sweden, and Jiang Zhenghua, Deputy Minister of the Chinese State Family Planning Commission. They are members of a panel of experts on international population which ends a three-day conference today at the United Nations to discuss future fertility expectations, and possible government responses to below-replacement fertility. Joseph Chamie, Director of the United Nations Population Division, moderated the briefing.

Mr. Galini said that, in western society, the modernization process had contributed to declining fertility rates. In Italy, fertility was extremely low. The number of children per woman had reached 1.1, which was the lowest fertility rate in recorded human history. The demographic impact was a rapidly ageing population, which would pose societal and economic problems. The adjustment of the social security system would be the greatest problem. In Italy, there was concern that there would be a crisis in that system. However, he said, there had not been great attention focused on other problems looming as a result of the low birth rate.

Ms. Hoem said Swedish fertility trends in recent years had been rather different from those in most other European countries. During the second half of the 1980s, fertility had increased dramatically. In 1990, at 2.14 children per woman, Sweden's fertility rate was the highest in Europe. This sparked much debate about what influenced fertility. Sweden had unusually high labour force participation among women, and extensive non-marital cohabitation, factors that usually went along with low fertility. After 1992, the pattern had changed, and Swedish fertility decreased dramatically to its lowest point. The current outlook was now around 1.6. There was no other western country that had experienced such swings.

Because of the high fertility of the late 1980s, Sweden did not face the problems of many other countries, she said. Swedish authorities did not think the fertility rate there would fall as low as in other countries. The main reason behind the decrease in fertility was the postponement of childbearing, especially among women with a relatively low education level. They had also been hit with high unemployment after 1990. Among women who had a job, fertility had not decreased. Women with a higher educational level had relatively high fertility. She foresaw a gradual increase in Swedish fertility rates if the economy improved, which it now appeared to be doing.

Mr. Jiang said the fertility rate in China used to be very high. In the 1950s and 1960s, it had been around six children per woman. From 1970 to

1975, it had fallen to around 4.5, and to 3.1 from 1975 to 1980. The rate was now below two. However, China was not worried about that decline. The momentum of population growth was high there, so there was a large group of fertile women. In 1997, the number of women aged 15 to 49 was 336 million. There were 115 million aged between 15 and 29. It was a huge group, and even though the fertility rate was low, the birth rate was high.

Another reason China was not worried about its low fertility rate was that there was a large labour surplus, he continued. There were an estimated 130 million surplus workers in rural China. By the end of the century, it was estimated that figure would increase to 190 to 200 million. China would try to keep its fertility rate below the replacement level (2.1 children per woman) for several years. The country would work to improve the quality of its family-planning service, and enhance poverty-alleviation projects in poor areas. At the same time, it would increase incentives for small families in rural areas.

A correspondent said that in the 1970s Italy was not on the chart of low fertility-rate countries. Finland was at the top of the list. Now, it seemed the two countries had reversed their positions, and he asked Mr. Galini to comment. Mr. Galini replied that he did not know the details about Finland, but that Italy's fertility rate had fallen from 2.2 in the 1970s to around 1.1 and 1.2 over the last years.

That had been a rapid and dramatic change, he said. In the mid-1960s, the number of births annually in Italy was about 1 million. Over the last years, it had fallen to just half that figure. There had been a major impact on hospitals and obstetricians. Attendance at schools had fallen, and there was a surfeit of teachers -- the average pupil-teacher ratio in post-primary schools had fallen to 8:1, perhaps the lowest in the world. This was a very costly trend. There were many pediatricians, but few geriatricians. There should be a shift not only of financial resources, but also of human resources towards care for the elderly.

Responding to a question on the impact of AIDS on the fertility problem, Mr. Jiang said AIDS was not yet a very serious problem in China, although a special committee had been set up to monitor the situation, since cases could expand very quickly.

A correspondent asked what the long-term consequences of falling fertility rates would be in economic terms, and when they would be felt. Mr. Galini said the effects would be felt rapidly. The first effect in Italy would be on the social security system. By the year 2030, the number of people aged 60 and over in that country may be more than the working age population. That would be the first time such a situation had existed in the world.

He said the large decrease in the labour force would, for a while, be a solution to the problem of youth unemployment, but after the beginning of the

Population Briefing - 3 - 6 November 1997

next century there would probably be a labour shortage, coupled with an ageing of the labour force. At the same time, while the European labour force was declining, there would be a major growth in the labour force in much of the rest of the world.

Ms. Hoem said there had not been the same problem in Sweden. Of course, there would be some ageing of the population, but it would proceed relatively slowly, and the problem would not be so severe. Sweden would have the time to be relatively prepared.

Mr. Jiang said the situation in China was very different. If it were not for family planning, the Chinese birth rate could have been much higher, and China would have needed 200 million tons more of grain. There would have been much greater consumption of resources, and a problem of unemployment. For China, the low fertility rate had, in fact, provided a strong push to economic development. Problems in the pension system had been created by the high fertility rates in the 1950s and 1960s. Generally speaking, at least for several decades, a low fertility rate would be good for China's economic growth.

In a follow-up question for Mr. Jiang, a correspondent asked whether, as people became more affluent in China, having larger homes and more economic room, they would not also want to have more children. Mr. Jiang replied that the psychological effects were very complex. At the beginning, when people had more money, they did not want to have more children -- rather they wanted to have the time to enjoy their economic activities.

However, he continued, people, who thought in a more traditional way, may believe they needed to have children to inherit their property. He told a story of a man who had become rich and, hoping for a son, had four daughters instead. Finally, in a fit of pique, he had burned down his house, as he had no son to inherit it. But that was an extreme case, he said. Many people had changed as they became richer, he said, telling the story of a woman with only one child, who did not want more because she would have less leisure time with more children. The situation was very complex, he said. China should deal with it very carefully -- guiding the people when they became rich in how to use their money.

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